Pit Picks – Texas (Dickies 500)
2008 Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway
This week the Cup series heads to the Dallas/Fort Worth area to run the second Texas race on the schedule. Texas is a very similar track to Atlanta (yay cookie-cutters), but with a little more grip, so this weeks lineup should look alot like last weeks. in fact, the top 5 in the spring race at Texas Motor Speedway looked alot like the top 5 last week at Atlanta, with 4 of the 5 drivers being the same, including Carl Edwards winning, and Jimmie Johnson finishing 2nd in both.
With only 3 races remaining, and a 92 point lead, I’m hoping for pretty much the same thing as Jimmie Johnson’s #48 team…No epic meltdown. Take drivers who are consistant on the final three tracks, and don’t take huge gambles.
The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)
Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(1) & Carl Edwards(3)
Not much I can say about these two that hasn’t already been said. Jimmie rocks the cookie-cutters and is on a streak that is hard to match, having swept the top 10 throughout the first 7 Chase races. Both Edwards and Johnson have at least one win at Texas, and Carl has done it from both the front (2nd) and the back (30th) of the pack at the start. Other good options here are Matt Kenseth (model of consistency) and Denny Hamlin (top 5′s in the spring race, and last week at Atlanta). Jeff Gordon might be one driver to avoid this week. Texas and Gordon aren’t the best of friends, as he’s had his only 43rd place finish ever, and has never won there.
Group 2 – Kyle Busch(1), David Ragan(2), Dale Earnhardt Jr(2), Martin Truex(8)
Since Texas winners tend to start up front (only 3 of 15 winners have started worse than 8th), I picked a bunch of guys who not only race well, but tend to qualify towards the front. Earnhardt Jr is the only driver in this group with a win at the track, but does have 2 poles, and those 10 bonus points could be big in putting this lead out of reach. David Ragan has the 2nd best average finish over the past 5 races, which is the consistency you want at this time of the year. Truex Jr won the pole last fall at Texas, and has qualified well lately, when quals have actually been run.
Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(9), David Reutimann(3)
Allmendinger has run well since taking over the #10 Gillett Evernham Dodge, finishing 14th and 15th the past two races. He’s a man with something to prove, since he doesn’t have a ride lined up for ’09. Since he’s not in the top 35 locked into the race, the second option HAS to be (nothing but sunny skies in the forecast for Texas). I only have one start left for Brian Vickers or I would have used him here since he has won a pole here. I decided on David Reutimann to back up AJ, in case he doesn’t make the race. If you need to make a splash this week and have nothing to lose, Joey Logano would be a good option. They finally have him in decent equipment/staffing (Gibbs car/team instead of Hall of Fame) with a chance to earn his way in. It only took him a handful of races to take a win in Nationwide, can he do it on the Cup side as well? Personally I don’t think so, but look for him to finish top 10 to top 15 if he can keep his nose clean.
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