Pit Picks – Miami (Ford 400)
Ford Championship Weekend is now upon us, and barring a disaster for the #48 team, Jimmie Johnson will match Cale Yarborough’s record of 3 consecutive championships. As long as Johnson finishes 36th or better, it doesn’t matter where Carl Edwards finishes, and Jimmie takes the title. I’m faced with pretty much a similar situation in my fantasy league. I need about 100 to 120 points to clinch. To put that in perspective, Jimmie Johnson earned 120 points last week at Phoenix on his own, and I’ve only had 3 weeks all season under 200 points. Consistency is basically all I’m looking for out of my group of drivers this weekend.
The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)
Group 1 – Matt Kenseth(6) & Carl Edwards(2)
It’s the Ford 400, so why not load up on Ford’s this weekend? The Roush Fenway team has been lights out at Homestead Miami since the reconfiguration of the track in 2003, even sweeping the top 4 on one occasion. Add to that, Carl is gunning for at least a shot at a championship and will be doing everything he can to lead laps and run up front. Those 10 point bonuses for leading laps will help close this deal for my squad. In the 7 Chase races Edwards hasn’t gotten mixed up in trouble, he’s finished in the top 4. I expect more of the same this weekend.
Group 2 – Jamie McMurray(8), David Ragan(2), Dale Earnhardt Jr(1), Martin Truex Jr(7)
Again, loading up on Roush Fenway Fords here. I would have taken Greg Biffle as well had I not used up his starts weeks ago. With 3 wins in the past 4 races at Homestead-Miami, he is THE go to guy here. McMurray has run well lately, and you could hardly wipe the smile off his face last week, following an engagement and an announcement he’s reuniting with former crew cheif Donnie Wingo for the ’09 season. He’s also 5th overall in average race points the past 5 races…he’s leading laps and qualifying near the front as well. The only driver that’s consistantly run in the top 10 that isn’t in the Roush stable is Martin Truex Jr. He’s ahead of the field over the past 3 years in % of laps in the top 10 and average running position over that time.
Group 3 – Brian Vickers(1), David Reutimann(1)
These two drivers are 1-2 in number of races they were tops in the group. There’s a good shot one of them will be that guy again this weekend. Over the last 5 races, Vickers is tops in average finish, followed closely by AJ Allmendinger and Reutimann. Allmendinger has run well the last 3 races, but this is his first go at Homestead-Miami, so I’ll stick with a little more experience.
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