Pit Picks – Phoenix (Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500)
This week the Cup series is off to Arizona for the penultimate race of the season, and of course the Chase. Jimmie Johnson still holds a 106 point lead over Carl Edwards, and has been consistantly great at the 1 mile tri-oval, with finishes of 1st, 1st, 2nd and 4th over his last four races. Jimmie could end the championship race this weekend for all intents and purposes by picking up 90 points on Carl. If he feels like showing up next weekend at Miami, the margin over Edwards he needs to clinch is 56. That’s the 90, minus the worst possible 34 points he would get for being in the field in the Ford 400.
My 110 point lead should hold up over the final 2 races, unless something drastic happens. Looking at who I have for this week, and who my opponent has this week, the probability for common drivers again is high. The past 2 or 3 races, we’ve shared at least 2 drivers, which makes it tougher for big swings in the standings, which benefits the team in the lead. I’ve been able to come out on top by small margins to pad my modest lead. On to the picks!
The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)
Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(1) & Carl Edwards(2)
Quite a few solid options in group A this week as 7 of the 10 drivers in this group have won at the track. Jimmie Johnson has finished no worse than 15th at Phoenix, and has 4 consecutive Top 5 finishes, including back to back wins last fall and this spring. He’s pretty much the go-to this weekend, since I have no interest in saving him for Homestead-Miami. Despite never winning here, I tabbed Carl as my back up, since he’s on a roll. He said 3 weeks ago, his only shot would be to win the final 4 races, and after taking the first 2, it is tough to doubt him.
Group 2 – Kyle Busch(1), Mark Martin(1), Ryan Newman(2), Martin Truex(7)
This is Mark Martin’s final race for DEI before heading off to greener pastures. No he’s not finally retiring…just jumping over to Hendricks. Although he has only one win at Phoenix (’93), he does average a finish inside the top 10 over the past 10 years, with a worst finish of 19th. That’s the kind of consistancy you need down the stretch to close out a pool. Kyle Busch has won here, and has turned his performance back around in recent weeks and should get the nod as the second starter in this group. Newman is on the roster for his qualifying efforts, and Truex Jr is second only to Mark Martin in this group for average finish at the track. He’s never finished higher than 7th in 5 tries, but he’s also finished no worse than 22nd.
Group 3 – Travis Kvapil(3), David Reutimann(2)
As much as I’ve been pimping AJ Allmendinger the past couple weeks, he’s never actually run a race at the track (at least in the Cup series), and has to earn his spot on time. I’d prefer to go with two guys locked into the race so I’ll definitely have options come Sunday. While I don’t think either of these drivers have top 10 potential this week, avoiding a disaster and finishing mid-pack is pretty much all I need over the last two weeks out of this category. Both drivers finished around the 20th place spot in the spring.
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