Pit Picks – Shelby 427 (Las Vegas)
2009 Shelby 427 at Las Vegas
Week 3 in the Sprint Cup series sees the haulers head northeast across the California/Nevada border to the hometown of the Busch brothers, Las Vegas. Vegas is a progressively banked, one and a half mile D-shaped oval track, that is part of one of the better overall facilities the series visits. About a quarter of the Sprint Cup season is run on tracks of a similar configuration (the “cookie cutters”), so there is ample information on which to base your picks for this race. Of those 10 races (5 of which were in the Chase…if you ask me, a bit of a disproportion), Carl Edwards won 5 of them, including the race at Vegas, although not without controversy, as he was penalized post race, for a loose oil tank lid.
This year’s race has been extended 27 miles in one of those ‘genius’ marketing ploys. I find it funny sometimes, how easy Nascar moves on some things, and how stubborn they can be on others. Such is life when sport is ruled by the almighty dollar, I guess.
**The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)
Group 1 – Carl Edwards(9) & Kyle Busch(9)
Roush Ford’s have been hot to start the season, and look to make it 3 victories in a row to start the season. This time it won’t be Matt Kenseth taking the checkered flag (although he’ll probably be hanging around somewhere in the top 10). As I already mentioned, Edwards was lights out on the cookie-cutters last season, and I think he’ll be money on them again this year. I doubt he’ll win the 5 he did last season, but 2 or 3 isn’t out of the question. Kyle Busch also had some success on this type of track last year, at least in the early going, before the disaster that was his Chase. He won at both Atlanta and Chicago, during his torrid ‘regular season’, making him the only driver besides Carl to win multiple races on the mile and a halfs. He’s looked great to start the season, and if not for being caught up in someone else’s mess at Daytona, he’d probably be in the top 3 in points right now. Busch also has the best average finish over the past few years at the track.
Group 2 - Kurt Busch(9), David Reutimann(9), Brian Vickers(9), Kasey Kahne(9)
Why not take both Busch brothers at their home track? I can’t see why not. Kurt has a pair of top 10 finishes, and that new Dodge engine Penske ran last week should make them at least competitive again this season. He has run well at Vegas, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to good finishes. Look for that to change this weekend. Reutimann hasn’t been all that hot at Vegas in the past couple seasons, but Toyota was still getting their program off the ground. Now that they’re getting consistantly better efforts, don’t be surprised to see a third straight top 15 finish out of the #00. Vickers is pretty much in the same boat as Reutimann, and should also benefit from the improved Toyota program. If he wants to go ‘Chasing’ this year, he better bring it on these tracks. Kasey Kahne finished 6th at Vegas last season, and also won at a similarly configured Charlotte (the only driver not in the top group to do so at 1.5 miles), earning him a spot on the roster this week.
Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(7), Marcos Ambrose(9)
It’s status quo in group 3 this week. Still riding Allmendinger, even after a sub-par performance in Fontana, as he’s still one of the top 3 options, and still has an uncertain future. Ambrose has put in decent performances in the first 2 races (17th and 22nd) and will probably hang around as the back up in this group until I have to start using someone else.
Good luck with your picks this weekend!
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