Pit Picks – Aarons 499 (Talladega)
Who’s ready for a little shake-up in the standings? This week could be just what you’re looking for. We’re off to Alabama for the Aaron’s 499 at the superspeedway at Talladega. Of course this is a restrictor plate track so we’ll see high speeds at very close quarters, and most likely ‘The Big One’, a wreck capable of taking out or damaging half of the field in a matter of seconds. I’ll put the over/under on ‘The Big One’ mentions by the TV crew at 47.
My ‘strategy’ for restrictor plate races is usually take Dale Earnhardt Jr., and then fill in the squad with guys you most likely wouldn’t pick for most other tracks. I hate wasting a start on a top pick in the group only to have them get caught up in a wreck, so I’ll save those guys for tracks where you’re less at the mercy of every other car in the field.
**The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)
Group 1 – Mark Martin(9) & Clint Bowyer(9)
As well as Mark Martin has run recently, I still don’t put him in the same class as Johnson or Gordon, and there are ample quality drivers to pick from for most races. Martin does have a couple wins and a couple poles here, but all of the above were before the turn of the century. He is enjoying a bit of a renaissance of late, so maybe he’ll find victory lane again. Plus, Mark Martin is one of the nicest guys in Nascar, who wouldn’t wanna be his drafting partner? I went with Bowyer so I couldn’t convince myself to start the 24, 48 or 18 had they been on my roster. It doesn’t hurt that he hasn’t been outside the top 10 in his last 5 ‘plate’ races.
Group 2 - Brian Vickers(9), Dale Earnhardt Jr(9), Ryan Newman(8), David Reutimann(8)
If Vickers and Earnhardt can stay out of each other’s way, or at least play nice this weekend (Dale pretty much has to after the Mears altercation last week), they both should be able to put together decent finishes. Junior has 5 wins at Talladega and is known for his prowess on the restrictor plate tracks. Vickers also has a win here, during his last season at Hendrick. Newman had a rough go in the first plate race this season, but that team has done a complete 180 and is headed in the right direction. If he has a car, look for him to get hooked up with team mate Tony Stewart and be there at the finish. Tony is actually my pick to win this race, but I don’t like taking chances with solid starts at plate tracks, as mentioned above. Reutimann has the 4th best average out of this group, and those Toyotas really seem to get the job done at the larger tracks.
Group 3 – Regan Smith(9), Sam Hornish Jr(9)
Smith is back at the track where he SHOULD have had his first career victory. He’s now with a part time team though, so his prospects of racing for the checkers is a little less likely this go around. Still, he obviously can get it done, and now knows to stay above the stripe, so hopefully a top 15 (was 21st at Daytona) isn’t out of the question. If you throw out the short tracks, Sam Hornish has had a respectable average finish so far this season, and has really come on in the last couple races, including his first ever top 10 last weekend. Hopefully that result will build some confidence going into this week’s race.
Good luck with your picks and have a great weekend!
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