Pit Picks – Carfax 400 (Michigan)
Wow…I’ve really been slacking on the picks. This is the first time since May I’ve posted prior to the race/quals. I guess this is a sign the busy summer is starting to wind down. Hopefully you’re all still doing well in your leagues, and have saved a few key drivers for some much needed points down the stretch.
On tap this weekend is the Carfax 400 at Brooklyn, Michigan, a 2 mile D-shaped oval that is usually dominated by the Roush Fenway Fords. The races at Michigan are seen by most to be rather bland, and there tends to be few wrecks, few cautions, and have a tendency to end up being fuel mileage affairs. This usually means that the big names should still be around at the end, and chances are you won’t end up with a really low points day.
We have 4 races left until the Chase, which should have an impact on how a few drivers perform over the coming month. Some drivers will be playing it safe, getting the most points they can without doing something stupid to take them out of contention. Others have nothing to lose, either because they have no shot at dropping out of the top 12 or have no shot at making the Chase and no shot at dropping out of the top 35.
**The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)
Group 1 – Carl Edwards(6) & Greg Biffle(9)
Any of the top 3 Roush cars are a solid bet at Michigan, and you can pretty much pencil in 2 of the 3 to be in the top 5 when all is said and done. All 3 have multiple wins at the track. At this point in the season I’m a little more comfortable with Biffle and Edwards than I am with Kenseth. This could be a make or break race for Kenseth, in regards to his Chase chances.
Group 2 - Dale Earnhardt Jr(7), Kasey Kahne(4), Joey Logano(9), Brian Vickers(5)
I think the saying is “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while”…but that’s not why I’m taking Junior this weekend. The pressure is off, he has no shot at making the Chase, and he can just go out and run the race. He does have a win (fuel-mileage) and a couple poles here, but I don’t think you’ll see either this weekend. I do expect a solid top 10 finish though. Vickers has been one of the top drivers over the past 5 races, and has the last 2 poles at Michigan. Kasey Kahne has an average finish of under 10 in the past month or so, and that new Dodge power-plant seems to be doing wonders for the #9 car. Look for him to contend for a win here. Joey is on his second go-round on most tracks now, and his performance is improving steadily. He’s not leading laps or contending for wins, but if you’re interested in saving starts for your big dogs, this is a good spot start.
Group 3 – Brad Keselowski(8), AJ Allmendinger(4)
Two drivers have been clearly the class of this group over the past few weeks, Marcos Ambrose and AJ Allmendinger. I barely have any Ambrose left, and want to save a couple starts for the Fall segment, so ‘Dinger is my guaranteed to start car. I tabbed Keselowski of the go-or-go-homers, on his home track. The Hendrick entry is still working on making an impression to hopefully get into a full-time ride somewhere for 2010. He’s ripped off 3 top 10s including a win at Talladega, and should be in contention for a solid top 10 to top 20 finish this weekend.
Good luck with your picks and enjoy a Sunday race for a change!
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