The Pit Stall

Over the past few weeks, the ‘Chase for the Championship’ has been mentioned more and more on the NASCAR race broadcasts. With the regular season close to three quarters finished, it’s a good time to take a look at who the 12 contenders for the title may be. We’ll take a look at the current standings, recent performance and also driver history at the remaining 8 tracks.

Count Them In

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch are locked in. All 4 drivers currently have at least 300 points on 13th place, and barring a major catastrophe will be competing for the 2010 crown. I’m also going to eliminate everyone from Jamie McMurray on down as they’re all at least 200 points south of the 12th place cutoff, and have too many drivers to jump. That leaves us with 14 drivers vying for the remaining 8 spots.

Some Numbers

Note: Points cutoff is relative to the 12th position.  Recent Avg is over the past 5 races.  Tracks Avg is the Average finish (not including 2010) at the remaining 8 tracks (all races).  Wins is wins at the remaining 8 tracks (all races).  I may have punched in a number or two wrong, but they should be relatively accurate.

Driver	Points Cutoff	Recent Avg	Tracks Avg	Wins
Denny Hamlin	+230	133.6	12.95	6
Kyle Busch	+206	101.4	13.69	8
Matt Kenseth	+152	108.2	13.41	5
Jeff Burton	+149	132.4	18.25	2
Tony Stewart	+81	146.2	8.84	18
Greg Biffle	+64	117.2	15.19	2
Dale Earnhardt Jr	+7	136.8	16.36	7
Carl Edwards	0	113.6	13.56	9
Mark Martin	-39	99.2	13.86	14
Clint Bowyer	-49	115.6	15.56	1
Ryan Newman	-80	108.6	18.16	5
Kasey Kahne	-154	130.4	18.78	5
David Reutimann	-170	115.6	24.14	0
Joey Logano	-173	107.2	20.69	0

Tony Stewart

The first thing that stands out to me looking at this chart is Tony Stewart will definitely be a part of the Chase.  He always gets ‘hot’ in the summer months, and this year looks to be no exception.  He’s third, behind Harvick and Johnson for points over the past 5 races.  He also has by far the best average finish and most wins at the remaining regular season tracks. 

Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin looks to be in a solid enough position to hold down the 6th spot in the post season.  He has a large cushion, a solid average and wins at a number of the tracks left on the schedule.  His weakest race left is this coming weekend at Chicagoland Speedway and he still averages a top 20 finish there.

Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch has been ‘struggling’ of late, which has taken him out of the ‘absolutes’ group and forced us to take a look at where he stacks up against the rest of the cut off group.  He’s been out front, and leading laps, but hasn’t been getting the finishes.  He has average finishes of 12th or better at 4 of the remaining tracks though, including a 6.0 at Richmond.  I’d be surprised if he’s not locked in and going for ‘bonus’ points there.

Matt Kenseth

Despite the much discussed lack of speed in the Ford camp, Matt Kenseth has been his usual consistent self, racking up decent finishes and putting himself in a position to compete for a championship.  He’s behind only Stewart and Hamlin for average finish, with only 1 track being outside of a 15th average finish.  I’ll give him the nod as well.

Jeff Burton

Jeff Burton looks to have a solid cushion with close to 200 points on 13th and has run well of late.  That said, I’m not completely sold on his chances to make it in.  200 points over 8 races is 25 points per race.  That’s anywhere between 5 and 8 positions per race.  There’s some solid drivers just outside the cutoff that I could see pulling that off.   Burtons chances could be made or broken at The Glen, where he has easily the worst average finish of anyone we’re looking at any track.   Solid finishes at Chicago and Indy would go a long way towards giving him some breathing room at the road course.

Greg Biffle/Carl Edwards

Greg Biffle has been decent as of late (10th of all drivers over past 5) but he hasn’t been up front leading laps, and those bonus points missed out on could come back to haunt him come Richmond.  I think unless Roush gets this FR9 engine figured out, one of Biffle or Carl Edwards is going to come up short and Edwards has better numbers over this stretch, including a couple sub 10th place averages.

Dale Earnhardt Jr

Dale Earnhardt Jr will have to greatly improve his performance on the Indy to Watkins Glen stretch to be a factor in the Championship standings.  He’s averaging a finish of 20th or higher at all 3 tracks, but has been quite successful at the other 5.  His Daytona weekend should give him the confidence needed to make a serious push to stay in the top 12.  I expect him to be the 3rd Hendrick car in the Chase.

Outside Looking In

So that leaves 2 potential spots for those that currently find themselves 13th or lower.  I’d say there’s 3 drivers that have a legitimate shot at finding themselves in those spots.  The first is Mark Martin.  His Chicago through Watkins Glen stats are second to only Tony Stewart, which if he can continue the trend should put him in a good position to play it safe down the stretch.  That would put all 4 Hendrick cars in the Chase…much to the chagrin of a large number of fans.

Kasey Kahne has been money of late (pretty much since it was announced he’d be going to Hendrick Motorsports), and I think we’ll see him make a serious run at the 12th spot, despite being 154 points back currently.  His stats don’t really back it up, as pretty much everyone ahead of him has better numbers.  I’m picking Kasey for strong finishes at both Chicago (3rd in ’09) and Indianapolis (7th in 08 and 09) to get him right back in the thick of things.

If Kahne can’t make up the ground, I think the spot goes to either Burton or Bowyer (unless something ‘clicks’ at Roush as mentioned earlier).  I don’t think Newman, Reutimann or Logano are Chase-worthy this season.  I think Joey is still a season away from being included.  With his continued improvement he should be a factor in 2011.

So that leaves my Chase drivers looking like this: Harvick, Gordon, Johnson, Busch x2, Hamlin, Kenseth, Stewart, Earnhardt, Edwards, Martin, Kahne.  Ten of the twelve currently inside the cutoff will remain there.

I’ll be back after a few races to re-visit the issue, and take a look at how things are shaping up with my expectations.  Feel free to leave your thoughts, whether you agree or disagree in the comments.  Let me know who you think the 12 Chasers will be.

Filed under: Pit Picks by Site Admin - Friday, July 9th, 2010