The Pit Stall

Another four races are in the books and it’s time for a little review and update on my previous predictions.  Some things played out as expected, and of course others didn’t.  The top 12 after Richmond could very well be the same as the top 12 currently, but I’m not ruling out a couple drivers from making a jump just yet.

Count Them In

I lumped Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch all into the ’locked in’ group and I don’t think that has changed.  They occupy 4 of the top 5 spots and each have a 60+ point per race cushion.  Jimmie has had an uncharacteristic bad spell, and has seemed to find trouble wherever trouble could be found.  Can any of it be attributed to being a new parent, and a possible lack of focus for the time being?  I’m sure the rest of the Chase competitors hope so.  While we’re at it, we might as well add Jeff Burton to the locked in category.  He’s been money since my last post and went in the complete opposite direction I was expecting. 

Some Numbers

Note: Points cutoff is relative to the 12th position.  Recent Avg is over the past 5 races.  Tracks Avg is the Average finish (not including 2010) at the remaining 4 tracks (all races).

Driver	Points Cutoff	Recent Avg	Tracks Avg
Denny Hamlin	+231	113.6	12.53
Kyle Busch	+225	107.6	12.43
Tony Stewart	+224	141.4	10.55
Carl Edwards	+180	160.2	13.4
Matt Kenseth	+165	120.4	13.05
Greg Biffle	+102	123.4	12.73
Mark Martin	0	118.8	16.35
Clint Bowyer	-10	125.4	16.38
Ryan Newman	-83	110.6	17.98
Dale Earnhardt Jr	-121	100.6	11.65
Kasey Kahne	-133	132.4	18.23
David Reutimann	-166	121.0	22.28

Tony Stewart

Tony is in a great spot and has had a solid run of good finishes (4 straight top 10s).  He also has the best stats of the remaining drivers at the next four tracks.  Lock him in! 

Denny Hamlin

Denny has cooled of late after winning 5 of 10 races between March and June.  His best finish in the past few races was at a traditionally weak track for him in Chicago.  He still has a pretty large cushion and the remaining tracks he’s been decent at, with a favourite of his to end the regular season (Richmond).  It’ll be some sort of travesty for him not to make it at this point.

Kyle Busch

The younger Busch brother has put up 2 months of ‘meh’.  Since the first Michigan race, which saw an end to an 8 race streak of top 10′s, he’s only managed 2 finishes of 10th or better, and only led during 2 of those races.  Very uncharacteristic of a guy that seemed to always be up near the front, gunning for it.  Maybe they’ve been pacing themselves and trying some things out prior to the Chase, since they were in a pretty comfortable spot.  Either way, Kyle is pretty safely in the top 12.

Matt Kenseth

It’s been typical Matt Kenseth lately, with a heap of consistent finishes.  I’m sure he’d like to be consistently finishing somewhere in the 5-10 range instead of 12-18, but that will still get him into the Chase.  The Roush Fords have stepped up their game of late, and that’s a good sign heading into the playoff.

Jeff Burton

Jeff Burton has torn it up since I last posted, at tracks that he’s not usually that strong at.  He’s been second to only Carl Edwards over the past 5 races.  As previously mentioned, he’s now included in the locked in group.

Greg Biffle/Carl Edwards

Greg Biffle has been up and down the past 5 races, but he does have that all important 1st with for Roush Fenway this season.  He’s still in danger of falling out, but the next 4 tracks are ones he does well at.  If Biffle can nail down a typical solid Roush performance at Michigan, it would go a long way to putting him in the post-season.  Carl Edwards has been on a tear.  His last 5 races have all been top 7 finishes, and he’s averaged nearly 15 points per race better than anyone in the field over that span.  He’ll lock himself in with what I expect will be another top 5 this weekend at Brooklyn.

Dale Earnhardt Jr

I said Dale Earnhardt Jr would have to greatly improve his performance on the Indy to Watkins Glen stretch to be a factor in the Championship standings. He didn’t.  He finished each of the past 4 races between 23rd-27th.  I’m still not writing him off, as he has the second best stats of any driver over the next 4 tracks.  He just has a big hill to climb.

Outside Looking In

Burton going on a tear pretty much means there’s only really 1 or 2 spots still up for grabs, depending on how you look at things.  Earnhardt Jr. sits on the outside looking in and as expected Mark Martin has worked his way into the top 12.  Bowyer is not far behind, and I don’t think I can completely write him off with how well the Childress teams are running.  Kasey Kahne has continued to run well (6th best over last 5 races), but he may have been too far back to begin with.  It’ll take a monumental collapse by a number of drivers or a miraculous stretch by himself to make it.  Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond haven’t exactly been kind to Kasey.  McMurray has moved himself up the charts with a big win at Indy and other solid finishes, but again, he’s struggled at the upcoming tracks.

So that leaves my expected Chase drivers currently looking like this:  Harvick, Gordon, Johnson, Busch x2, Hamlin, Kenseth, Stewart, Biffle, Edwards, Martin, Burton. (changes in bold)

Filed under: Pit Picks by Site Admin - Wednesday, August 11th, 2010