The Pit Stall

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(9) & Kyle Busch(8)

Not much needs to be said about these selections.  The 3 time defending champ and probably the most talented driver in the series.  Even if these guys don’t win the race, they’ll be out front leading laps, picking up the bonus points.  Jimmie has had a relatively slow start to his season, which to some extent isn’t a huge surprise.  The #48 team uses the first 26 races as a nice long test to get it cranked up when The Chase rolls around.  Plus there are only as many cookie cutter tracks over the first 26 as there are in the final 10, and everyone knows Johnson rocks those.

Group 2 - Kurt Busch(8), David Reutimann(9), Brian Vickers(9), Tony Stewart(8)

Reutimann and Vickers have been solid, both with top 10 finishes again last week, including a 4th for Reutimann.  The 2nd tier Toyota (ie…multi-car operations that are not Gibbs) teams are getting some consistency in their programs, which makes these guys solid options on 1.5 mile and up tracks.  The real question will be how they perform on the smaller circuits.  Tony has really impressed me thus far.  I wasn’t expecting much from that team in the early going, as it’s a relatively new operation and Tony usually doesn’t start ripping off wins until the weather warms up.  Hopefully Newman can start keeping some cars together, and putting some solid finishes in, as I’d really like to see Tony succeed as an owner.  Kurt Busch, and the Penske Dodge’s in general have stepped up their performance so far this season, running the new R6P8 engines.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(6), Bobby Labonte(9)

Top 5 for Bobby Labonte last week definitely gets him on the roster for this week, as does a long history of success at Atlanta.  He has 6 top series wins in his career here.  I don’t expect him to make it 7 this week, but if he can run towards the front for most of the race as he did last week, another top 10 isn’t out of the question.  AJ is still on the roster, despite a lackluster performance last week.  There isn’t much to pick from in this group, so you might as well use up the starts when you can.

Good luck with your picks and have a great weekend!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Friday, March 6th, 2009
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I don’t really have much to say about Las Vegas as I saw only the final 2 laps of the race, since I was visiting the family for dinner.  Was definitely cool to see Kyle Busch in Victory Lane at his home track, with big brother there to celebrate with him.

It was another decent week in the pool for me, picking up another 278 points (if nothing else, I’m consistent).  I nailed the race winner again this week, but unfortunately made the wrong selections in the later groups or this could have been a monster week.  I jumped up a fair bit in the overall standings this week, probably due to a pile of people riding the Matt Kenseth bandwagon to a 43rd place finish.  Ouch!

Group 1 – Kyle Busch(8) & Carl Edwards(9)

I had Kyle Busch winning this race (check out the predictions thread over at The Go Teams Go Forums if you don’t believe me), so I obviously started him, despite going to the back of the field due to an engine change, post qualifying.  Kyle ended up leading a pile of laps (unfortunately not the most), and taking the checkers to earn top points for the group.  Edwards finished on the lead lap, back in 17th and would have been a huge disappointment this week.  A couple blown engines this week from the Roush camp have to make you go hmmmmmm in the coming weeks as well.

Group 2 – Kurt Busch(8), Kasey Kahne(8), David Reutimann(9), Brian Vickers(9)

I went with the elder Busch this week as well, since he started well and should have had a boatload of confidence heading into Vegas.  A strong qualifying effort put him on the front row, but he ended up a lap down (I’m assuming he got caught having pitted early during Jeff Gordon’s tire mishap with several others) in 23rd.  Kahne was solid posting an 11th place finish which would have been great had I not left a pair of top 10′s on the bench in Reutimann and Vickers.  Ah well…it happens.  I think both the #83 and #00 could contend for a Chase spot this season.  I’d peg them somewhere between 8th and 15th when New Hampshire 2 rolls around.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(6), Marcos Ambrose(9)

Another Dinger start and a lackluster finish, 4 laps down in 33rd place.  I really should be PVR’ing these races so I know what’s going on post race.  Ambrose was decent again, finishing off the lead lap in 20th.  I’d expect him to stay in that range (15-25) for the first half of the season and then pick it up in the second half, and of course on road courses. 

Recap

• Points for this race: 278 (Ky. Busch, Ku. Busch, Kahne, Allmendinger)
• Most Possible Points: 365 (Ky. Busch (Johnson qual), Reutimann, Kahne (Ku. Busch qual), B. Labonte)
• Season Points : 831
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 13
• Overall Percentile : 93rd 

Photo Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009
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2009 Shelby 427 at Las Vegas

Week 3 in the Sprint Cup series sees the haulers head northeast across the California/Nevada border to the hometown of the Busch brothers, Las Vegas.  Vegas is a progressively banked, one and a half mile D-shaped oval track, that is part of one of the better overall facilities the series visits.  About a quarter of the Sprint Cup season is run on tracks of a similar configuration (the “cookie cutters”), so there is ample information on which to base your picks for this race.  Of those 10 races (5 of which were in the Chase…if you ask me, a bit of a disproportion), Carl Edwards won 5 of them, including the race at Vegas, although not without controversy, as he was penalized post race, for a loose oil tank lid.

This year’s race has been extended 27 miles in one of those ‘genius’ marketing ploys.  I find it funny sometimes, how easy Nascar moves on some things, and how stubborn they can be on others.  Such is life when sport is ruled by the almighty dollar, I guess.

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Carl Edwards(9) & Kyle Busch(9)

Roush Ford’s have been hot to start the season, and look to make it 3 victories in a row to start the season.  This time it won’t be Matt Kenseth taking the checkered flag (although he’ll probably be hanging around somewhere in the top 10).  As I already mentioned, Edwards was lights out on the cookie-cutters last season, and I think he’ll be money on them again this year.  I doubt he’ll win the 5 he did last season, but 2 or 3 isn’t out of the question.  Kyle Busch also had some success on this type of track last year, at least in the early going, before the disaster that was his Chase.  He won at both Atlanta and Chicago, during his torrid ‘regular season’, making him the only driver besides Carl to win multiple races on the mile and a halfs.  He’s looked great to start the season, and if not for being caught up in someone else’s mess at Daytona, he’d probably be in the top 3 in points right now.  Busch also has the best average finish over the past few years at the track.

Group 2 - Kurt Busch(9), David Reutimann(9), Brian Vickers(9), Kasey Kahne(9)

Why not take both Busch brothers at their home track?  I can’t see why not.  Kurt has a pair of top 10 finishes, and that new Dodge engine Penske ran last week should make them at least competitive again this season.  He has run well at Vegas, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to good finishes.  Look for that to change this weekend.  Reutimann hasn’t been all that hot at Vegas in the past couple seasons, but Toyota was still getting their program off the ground.  Now that they’re getting consistantly better efforts, don’t be surprised to see a third straight top 15 finish out of the #00.  Vickers is pretty much in the same boat as Reutimann, and should also benefit from the improved Toyota program.  If he wants to go ‘Chasing’ this year, he better bring it on these tracks.  Kasey Kahne finished 6th at Vegas last season, and also won at a similarly configured Charlotte (the only driver not in the top group to do so at 1.5 miles), earning him a spot on the roster this week.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(7), Marcos Ambrose(9)

It’s status quo in group 3 this week.  Still riding Allmendinger, even after a sub-par performance in Fontana, as he’s still one of the top 3 options, and still has an uncertain future.  Ambrose has put in decent performances in the first 2 races (17th and 22nd) and will probably hang around as the back up in this group until I have to start using someone else.

Good luck with your picks this weekend!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, February 26th, 2009
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NASCAR followed up a non-eventful finish to the Daytona 500 with another non-eventful finish in California, with Matt Kenseth winning his second straight race to open the 2009 season.  Maybe he needs ‘vanilla’ to go to Victory Lane?  The boring ‘finishes’ seem to be working for him.  Kenseth won the race off pit road in the 4th and final caution of the evening (all for rain, which I’m sure made several fans uneasy after Daytona’s shortened race) thanks to a big mistake in the pits by teammate Greg Biffle, and held of Jeff Gordon over the final 35 laps to take the checkers.   The win gives Kenseth an 81 point lead over Jeff Gordon to begin the season and more importantly has 20 bonus points in his back pocket if/when he makes The Chase.

Matt Kenseth wins 2009 Auto Club 500

Week 2 results ahead…

It was a solid week in the pool for me, picking up another 275 points (anything between 260 and 300 is decent, over 300 is kick ass).  I was bang on with the Kenseth prediction, his Roush teammates turned in ok performances, and Allmendinger was a bit of a disappointment.

Group 1 – Matt Kenseth(8) & Carl Edwards(9)

On Thursday I suggested Matt Kenseth would come away from California with another win to back up his Daytona performance.  He ran a solid race, got great stops from his pit crew, and caught a couple lucky breaks along the way.  Not only did he win the race, but he led the most laps and picked up the extra 10 points for that.  Carl Edwards was never really in contention in this one, but still managed a top 10 finishing in 7th.  He also led a lap and earned the 10 point bonus.

Group 2 – David Ragan(8), Jamie McMurray(7), Ryan Newman(9), Brian Vickers(9)

I went all Roush in the first two groups after Vickers was dropped to the back for an engine change after qualifying on the pole.  Apparently that was a mistake as McMurray couldn’t hold off Johnson to lead the first lap, and Vickers out-performed both he and Ragan.  Oh well…Vickers will have quite a few good races this season, and I think he has an outside shot at making The Chase.  McMurray and Ragan finished 16th and 17th respectively, which were ok, but to have a really good scoring week, you want your group 2 drivers in the top 15.  Fortunately they weren’t far off of that ‘goal’.  Newman had another tough week and finished 2 laps down in 28th. 

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(7), Marcos Ambrose(9)

I don’t know what happened to AJ in this one, as I missed a fair bit of the first half of the race.  I’m not 100% sure if the snooze was track induced or from being up late the night before.  By the time I woke up he was well back, and out of contention.  He ended up rolling across behind Newman in 29th.  Ambrose faired a bit better and ended up 22nd, one spot back of tops in the group.  Ambrose now sits tied for 20th in points with Casey Mears, and with a solid run at Vegas should be comfortably in the top 35 when the series gets to Bristol.

Recap

• Points for this race: 275 (Kenseth, Ragan, McMurray, Allmendinger)
• Most Possible Points: 359 (Kenseth (Johnson qual), Busch, Stewart (McMurray & Vickers qual), B. Labonte)
• Season Points : 553
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 3
• Overall Percentile : 87th

Photo Credit: Jason Smith/Getty Images

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, February 23rd, 2009
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The spectacle that is Daytona is over and the haulers should be getting to the west coast, in preparation for what most would argue is the real season.  Superspeedway races are a huge crapshoot, and aren’t usually a true measure of a teams strength.  The Auto Club 500 is the race that begins to give us an idea who the contenders could be in 2009.  That said, I expect Matt Kenseth to be a big factor again this week.  Elliott Sadler and Michael Waltrip, not so much.

The Roush Ford’s are usually a good bet at the 2 mile tracks of California and Michigan.  This race shouldn’t be an exception.  One of Roush’s cars has won the spring race at California in each of the last 4 years.  Don’t be surprised if Matt Kenseth goes two for two to start the 2009 Sprint Cup season.

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Matt Kenseth(9) & Carl Edwards(9)

As previously mentioned, Roush Ford’s are stellar at California.  This week should be no exception.  Matt Kenseth should be loaded with confidence heading into this one, with a Daytona 500 victory under his belt, after what most considered a down year in 2008.  Carl Edwards is my pick to win the Championship this year, and this should be a good place to start the charge.  Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon aren’t bad picks in this spot either, as both have multiple (3) victories at the track.

Group 2 - Brian Vickers(9), Ryan Newman(9), David Ragan(9), Jamie McMurray(8)

Might as well stick with the Roush theme in group 2 with Ragan and McMurray for the same reasons.  This second group has alot of talent in it…much of which I’d like to save for the second half of the season.  Ryan Newman is always a threat for the pole and the 10 point bonus that comes with it, so I usually like to have him in my line up whether I plan on starting him or not.  Toyotas with all their horsepower fit well with the 2 mile track, and Vickers is the best of the bunch in this group.  Look for him to rebound from getting screwed in Daytona with a solid finish at Fontana.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(8), Marcos Ambrose(9)

I still haven’t heard of any sponsorship beyond the 8 or 9 races already set for Allmendinger, so I’m going to use him for all of those races.  I’m not really too excited about anyone else in this entire 3rd group, so outside of the ‘Dinger’ it’s going to be a tough group to pick race to race.  I have a feeling alot of people will have used up their Bobby Labonte starts real early in the season, and I wouldn’t mind having a former Cup champion in my back pocket down the stretch.  For that reason, I’m taking a Toyota as my second car here, with Ambrose getting the nod.  He may not have a pile of time in a Cup car, but I do like his overall racing experience and could see him ending the season somewhere between 18th and 25th.

Those are my picks for the Auto Club 500.  Of course they aren’t necessarily who I think will be the absolute best, but who I’m taking as part of my season long strategy.  Good luck in your pools this weekend!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, February 19th, 2009
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Phew!  Thankfully that’s over.  Holding a late season lead is pretty stressful.  I can only imagine how Jimmie Johnson felt on Sunday, as I had my fingers crossed for most of the race, especially at the end when Carl Edwards was close to running on empty, that my season wouldn’t go up in smoke in one race.  Fortunately my squad closed out the season with a solid week, again scoring over 300 points and winning the title by 292 points.

All in all it was a pretty solid season, marginally better than my Yahoo! Fantasy Nascar debut in 2007.  My team came out on top in 6 of the 36 races, and scored over 300 points on 13 occasions.

Group 1 – Carl Edwards & Matt Kenseth

Carl Edwards was the man this week, finishing first as well as leading the most laps.  This was the 2nd fuel milage win in 3 races for Edwards, and boy am I glad the #99 can really stretch a tank of gas.  Kenseth wasn’t so lucky, and ran out with only a few laps to go and ended up 25th.  He did run up front most of the evening, and led laps as well.

Group 2 – David Ragan, Jamie McMurray, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Martin Truex Jr

McMurray and Ragan got the starts to close out the season on the Miami-Homestead track that Roush Fenway Fords fare so well at.  McMurray closed out the season with another strong run, finishing 3rd.  David Ragan spent the first half of the race in the top 5, but the second half wasn’t so kind and he came home just ahead of Kenseth in 24th.  Truex Jr closed out the season with a top 10 and Earnhardt Jr continued to be snake-bitten by mechanical failrure as a break calipre broke, ending his day, and giving him a 41st place finish.

Group 3 – Brian Vickers, David Reutimann

I planned to start Vickers in this group until they swapped him to the #84, attempting to gaurantee Scott Speed a spot in the first 5 races of 2009.  The swap worked out as Vickers ended up passing Marcos Ambrose and the #47 team (formerly the #00), getting the second Red Bull Toyota a free pass to begin ’09.  Reutimann also finished 12 spots ahead of Vickers in 20th, and led some laps earning me extra points.

Recap

• Points for this race: 316 (Edwards, Ragan, McMurray, Reutimann)
• Most Possible Points: 368 (Edwards (Kenseth qual), McMurray, Kahne, Kvapil (Reutimann qual))
• Season Points : 9871
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 292
• Overall Percentile : 97th

I just wanted to say thanks to everyone for following along the past few weeks, and we’ll be back with our weekly (or race by race anyways) picks starting with Daytona in February.  Stay tuned in the mean time for a series on different types of fantasy Nascar leagues, as well as some predictions for the 2009 season.

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Wednesday, November 19th, 2008
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Ford Championship Weekend is now upon us, and barring a disaster for the #48 team, Jimmie Johnson will match Cale Yarborough’s record of 3 consecutive championships.  As long as Johnson finishes 36th or better, it doesn’t matter where Carl Edwards finishes, and Jimmie takes the title.  I’m faced with pretty much a similar situation in my fantasy league.  I need about 100 to 120 points to clinch.  To put that in perspective, Jimmie Johnson earned 120 points last week at Phoenix on his own, and I’ve only had 3 weeks all season under 200 points.  Consistency is basically all I’m looking for out of my group of drivers this weekend.

The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Matt Kenseth(6) & Carl Edwards(2)

It’s the Ford 400, so why not load up on Ford’s this weekend?  The Roush Fenway team has been lights out at Homestead Miami since the reconfiguration of the track in 2003, even sweeping the top 4 on one occasion.  Add to that, Carl is gunning for at least a shot at a championship and will be doing everything he can to lead laps and run up front.  Those 10 point bonuses for leading laps will help close this deal for my squad.  In the 7 Chase races Edwards hasn’t gotten mixed up in trouble, he’s finished in the top 4.  I expect more of the same this weekend.

Group 2 – Jamie McMurray(8), David Ragan(2), Dale Earnhardt Jr(1), Martin Truex Jr(7)

Again, loading up on Roush Fenway Fords here.  I would have taken Greg Biffle as well had I not used up his starts weeks ago.  With 3 wins in the past 4 races at Homestead-Miami, he is THE go to guy here.  McMurray has run well lately, and you could hardly wipe the smile off his face last week, following an engagement and an announcement he’s reuniting with former crew cheif Donnie Wingo for the ’09 season.  He’s also 5th overall in average race points the past 5 races…he’s leading laps and qualifying near the front as well. The only driver that’s consistantly run in the top 10 that isn’t in the Roush stable is Martin Truex Jr.  He’s ahead of the field over the past 3 years in % of laps in the top 10 and average running position over that time.

Group 3 – Brian Vickers(1), David Reutimann(1)

These two drivers are 1-2 in number of races they were tops in the group.  There’s a good shot one of them will be that guy again this weekend.  Over the last 5 races, Vickers is tops in average finish, followed closely by AJ Allmendinger and Reutimann.  Allmendinger has run well the last 3 races, but this is his first go at Homestead-Miami, so I’ll stick with a little more experience.

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, November 13th, 2008
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