The Pit Stall

The results at Texas look to at least take this Chase deal down to the final race of the season.   With the win for Carl Edwards and the 15th place finish for Jimmie Johnson, the lead has been trimmed to 106 points.  If Edwards can shave off another 50-70 points at Phoenix this coming weekend, it should make for a real interesting showdown at Homestead-Miami.  Jimmie is traditionally strong in Arizona, so that could be tough to do.  Quite the gamble by the #99 and the #24 running close to 70 laps to finish out the race when the fuel pit window was in the 55 lap range.  I guess that’s what you have to do when you have nothing to lose.

This week came down to another 2 on 2 matchup, since my only competition ran the same drivers as me in the 1st and 3rd groups.  I had Jr and Jr (Earnhardt/Truex) up against Kasey Kahne and David Ragan.  I again managed to come out ahead by a small margin and extend my lead.  If it weren’t for Dale Jr’s inability to get his engine fired after a splash of fuel to finish the race, it may have worked out much better.  As it was, my squad added another 18 points to the margin over 2nd place.

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(1) & Carl Edwards(2)

Thanks to the aforementioned fuel milage gamble and the win, Edwards was the class of this group.  He also picked up the 20 point bonus for leading the most laps, having led well over half of the race.  Jimmie Johnson didn’t fare quite as well this week, and managed to pick up a 15th place finish, his worst of the 8 Chase races this season.  I’m glad I started Edwards this week, or I would have dropped quite a few points to my competition.

Group 2 – Kyle Busch(1), David Ragan(2), Dale Earnhardt Jr(1), Martin Truex Jr(7)

If not for the issue with getting the car re-fired on a late pitstop by Dale Jr, all 4 of these drivers would have managed top 13 finishes.  Unfortunately, I had Earnhardt started this week so that problem on pit row ended up costing me at least 14 points for the week.  Kyle Busch has put together a pair of solid finishes, and looks to have his run of terrible luck in the Chase behind him.  Look for him and the other Gibbs cars to have a solid race at Phoenix.  David Ragan had another decent finish and is only behind Jimmie Johnson in points over the past 5 races.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(9), David Reutimann(2)

As much as I hyped up Allmendinger prior to the race, I just couldn’t ignore Reutimanns qualifying and practice results.  The switch paid off as Reutimann nabbed a top 10 finish and Allmendinger finished 3 laps down in 26th position.  Allmendinger should get another look this coming week though, with a flatter track on tap that open wheelers should have success on.

Recap

• Points for this race: 335 (Edwards, Truex Jr, Earnhardt Jr, Reutimann)
• Most Possible Points: 396 (Edwards (Gordon qual), McMurray, Biffle (Truex qual), Reutimann)
• Season Points : 9252
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 110
• Overall Percentile : 96th

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, November 3rd, 2008
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2008 Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

This week the Cup series heads to the Dallas/Fort Worth area to run the second Texas race on the schedule.  Texas is a very similar track to Atlanta (yay cookie-cutters), but with a little more grip, so this weeks lineup should look alot like last weeks.  in fact, the top 5 in the spring race at Texas Motor Speedway looked alot like the top 5 last week at Atlanta, with 4 of the 5 drivers being the same, including Carl Edwards winning, and Jimmie Johnson finishing 2nd in both. 

With only 3 races remaining, and a 92 point lead, I’m hoping for pretty much the same thing as Jimmie Johnson’s #48 team…No epic meltdown.  Take drivers who are consistant on the final three tracks, and don’t take huge gambles.

The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(1) & Carl Edwards(3)

Not much I can say about these two that hasn’t already been said.  Jimmie rocks the cookie-cutters and is on a streak that is hard to match, having swept the top 10 throughout the first 7 Chase races.  Both Edwards and Johnson have at least one win at Texas, and Carl has done it from both the front (2nd) and the back (30th) of the pack at the start.  Other good options here are Matt Kenseth (model of consistency) and Denny Hamlin (top 5′s in the spring race, and last week at Atlanta).  Jeff Gordon might be one driver to avoid this week.  Texas and Gordon aren’t the best of friends, as he’s had his only 43rd place finish ever, and has never won there.

Group 2 – Kyle Busch(1), David Ragan(2), Dale Earnhardt Jr(2), Martin Truex(8)

Since Texas winners tend to start up front (only 3 of 15 winners have started worse than 8th), I picked a bunch of guys who not only race well, but tend to qualify towards the front.  Earnhardt Jr is the only driver in this group with a win at the track, but does have 2 poles, and those 10 bonus points could be big in putting this lead out of reach.  David Ragan has the 2nd best average finish over the past 5 races, which is the consistency you want at this time of the year.  Truex Jr won the pole last fall at Texas, and has qualified well lately, when quals have actually been run. 

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(9), David Reutimann(3)

Allmendinger has run well since taking over the #10 Gillett Evernham Dodge, finishing 14th and 15th the past two races.  He’s a man with something to prove, since he doesn’t have a ride lined up for ’09.  Since he’s not in the top 35 locked into the race, the second option HAS to be (nothing but sunny skies in the forecast for Texas).  I only have one start left for Brian Vickers or I would have used him here since he has won a pole here.  I decided on David Reutimann to back up AJ, in case he doesn’t make the race.  If you need to make a splash this week and have nothing to lose, Joey Logano would be a good option.  They finally have him in decent equipment/staffing (Gibbs car/team instead of Hall of Fame) with a chance to earn his way in.  It only took him a handful of races to take a win in Nationwide, can he do it on the Cup side as well?  Personally I don’t think so, but look for him to finish top 10 to top 15 if he can keep his nose clean.

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Friday, October 31st, 2008
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One thing is becoming quite clear.  Jimmie Johnson and his #48 team have this Chase thing figured out and are going to win their 3rd straight Championship.  Carl Edwards, one of only 3 drivers with a realistic shot at surpassing Johnson won the race, only to have Jimmie come back from going a lap down to finish second.  Edwards picked up only 15 points on the leader, and less than stellar finishes by Greg Biffle and Jeff Burton have extended Johnson’s points lead, and left Edwards in second spot. 

In my fantasy league, this race basically came down to Jimmie Johnson and David Reutimann vs Jeff Burton and Brian Vickers, since Martin and Ragan were on both mine and my only competition’s rosters.  Fortunate for me, the Johnson/Reutimann combo won the day, and I managed to pick up another 28 points over second place, leaving me with a 92 point cushion over the final 3 races. 

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(1) & Carl Edwards(2)

Not a bad week to have either of these drivers on the squad.  Johnson, who I started, finished in 2nd place, overcoming a pit road speeding penalty early in the race.  Only 2 drivers fared better this week, one of which was Edwards, who won the race, and Matt Kenseth who finished 4th, but was actually the top driver in this group thanks to the 10 bonus points for leading the most laps.

Group 2 – Kyle Busch(1), David Ragan(2), Dale Earnhardt Jr(2), Mark Martin(1)

As I suggested prior to the race, I’d try to ‘block’ the picks of the team in 2nd place.  Both Mark Martin and David Ragan were listed on their roster, and were likely to get the start, so that’s who I went with.  Ragan finished 8th and Martin rolled across in 22nd.  Busch and Junior would have picked me up more points, with finishes of 5th and 11th respectively, but at this point in the game, with only a prize for first, it’s about holding off the competition.

Group 3 – Travis Kvapil(3), David Reutimann(3)

Neither of these drivers finished in the top 20 as I had hoped, but they fared better than the majority of the group 3 options I was also considering.  Reutimann got the start and finished 28th, while Kvapil ended up 5 spots ahead in 23rd.  AJ Allmendinger continues to impress down the stretch, as he had another top 15 finish in the #10 Gillett-Evernham Dodge, and should find his way into a full-time ride for next season with the vast improvement he’s made this year.

Recap

• Points for this race: 258 (Johnson, Ragan, Ky. Busch, Almirola)
• Most Possible Points: 332 (Kenseth, Ky. Busch, Biffle, Allmendinger)
• Season Points : 8917
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 92
• Overall Percentile : 96th

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, October 27th, 2008
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Atlanta, Georgia is the scene of this weeks race, the 4th last of the 2008 Cup season.  The quad oval track measures just over a mile and a half and produces some of the highest speeds on the Cup circuit.  This is the last race for Atlanta in it’s current slot on the schedule as this race will be moved to Labour Day next season, for more favourable weather, and to address attendance issues, both here and California.

Since there are only 4 weeks remaining on the schedule, and I hold a slim lead over 2nd place, the strategy somewhat turns to just protecting that lead, and taking drivers that are consistent at the respective tracks, and at the same time “blocking” my opponent’s starts.  I’m basically only competing against one other team at this point in the season, so I can try to match up my drivers with his, to negate the chance of him picking up points on me.  This can potentially be a bit of a cat and mouse game, that causes more headaches than it’s worth.  Fortunately I have looked ahead and planned my starts down the stretch weeks in advance so relying on this strategy isn’t a must.

The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(2) & Carl Edwards(3)

Over the past 8 races in Atlanta, these two have combined for 5 victories.  Jimmie swept the track last season, and Cousin Carl turned the trick in 05, with Jimmie’s extra victory being the fall race in 04.  Jimmie is on a streak that can’t be ignored, having averaged about a 4th place finish, and led about a third of the laps since the Chase began.  I’m looking to use his final starts here and Texas, since Miami-Homestead should be an extra long victory lap for him.  Carl usually runs his best at the tracks that are the fastest…Atlanta and the 2 milers at California and Michigan, so he’s a close second to Johnson.

Group 2 – Kyle Busch(1), David Ragan(3), Dale Earnhardt Jr(2), Mark Martin(2)

I’ve given up on working my roster to include guys who qualify well since it tends to rain every Friday, no matter where the series is, and I burn a spot on someone that could do well in the race.  It’s probably silly to have left Ryan Newman out this week, since he’s come out on top of 7 of the last 10 qualifying sessions at the track, but again, rain is in the forecast and I’m planning for the race.  Mark Martin is pretty much a sure start here, as I have 2 races left out of him, and I’m quite confident my opponent will also be using his last Martin start.  As for the other three, I’m undecided on who to take.  Ragan has been the hottest of the 3 and is gunning for the million dollar prize for best non-Chaser, but Kyle won here in the spring, and Junior has won here before as well.  Bobby Labonte might be a good option as well…he’s won 6 times at the track, but all were prior to piloting Petty Dodges.

Group 3 – Travis Kvapil(3), David Reutimann(4)

I considered burning Brian Vickers last start here until he got slapped with the 150 point penalty earlier this week, and I’m unsure how well he’ll adjust to a car that hasn’t been modified.  There were hotter drivers in this group, but I think these two have the best chance for a steady top 20 finish, and now is not the time to be taking big risks.

That’s the squad for this week.  I’ll be back early next week to bask in the glory or wallow in defeat.  Until then, good luck with your picks!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Friday, October 24th, 2008
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Over the past few days I’ve been crazy busy, and was unable to post this week’s picks prior to the race, so I’ll cover my picks and review them in one post.  Thanks to the Canadian Thanksgiving holiday, and all that goes with it, I was only able to catch about 30 laps of the race, so I’m not quite sure what bonehead move Carl Edwards pulled this week (he is on a roll after all) to cause him to finish so far back in the pack.

The team was much improved over last week’s debacle at Talladega, picking up a couple thousand spots in the overall standings, but unfortunately dropped a few points to the second place team in my pool.

The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(3) & Jeff Gordon(3)

I went with Jeff Gordon ahead of Jimmie Johnson this week, as I want to start Jimmie this coming week at Martinsville, and in two of the remaining 4 races after that.  Jimmie ended up 6th, two spots ahead of Gordon, and led the most laps giving him a 14 point edge on his owner/teammate.  A consistant top 10 finish out of this category is all you can ask for.

Group 2 – Mark Martin(2), Kasey Kahne(1), Kyle Busch(2), David Ragan(5)

Kasey Kahne and David Ragan got the nod in Group 2 this week.  Kahne on the strength of back to back wins at Charlotte earlier in the season, and Ragan, because I didn’t wanna burn up a Busch start when he’s on a rough streak.  Kahne didn’t disappoint, finishing second to Jeff Burton, which surprised the hell out of me, after seeing him a lap or two down during the stretch that I watched.  It was a welcome surprise when I saw the results Sunday morning.  The rest of the crew I had selected for this week all finished in the top 10 as well.

Group 3 – David Reutimann(5), Travis Kvapil(3)

Neither driver that I tabbed in this group fared very well during this weeks race.  Reutimann got the start and finished 32nd, and led one lap for the much needed 10 point bonus.  Kvapil limped home in 42nd, having completed only 194 of 334 laps.  Another rough week out of the 3rd group for me.

Recap

• Points for this race: 294 (Gordon, Ragan, Kahne, Reutimann)
• Most Possible Points: 348 (Burton/Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kahne, Vickers)
• Season Points : 8387
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 48
• Overall Percentile : 95th

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Wednesday, October 15th, 2008
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First things first…that was one hell of a finish to yesterdays race.  I can’t say much for the first three quarters of the race, since I didn’t tune in until late, but that move Carl Edwards attempted on the last lap was awesome.  It’s nice to see drivers going for wins instead of just sitting back and taking the safe points.  Had he wrecked himself or Jimmie, I most likely would have a different opinion of the move, considering Edwards has been the key to the success I’ve had in fantasy Nascar this season, and I picked Jimmie for this race.

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(4) & Tony Stewart(4)

Johnson continued his hot streak, taking the checkers and the trophy this weekend at Kansas.  He earned max points for the week, having won the pole (after JP Montoya failed inspection) and led the most laps (both 10 point bonuses in our pool scoring).  Fortunately I went with JJ this week, as Tony pretty much blew any shot at he had at leaving Joe Gibbs Racing a champion with a 40th place finish

Group 2 – Mark Martin(3), Casey Mears(8), Dale Earnhardt Jr.(3), Jamie McMurray(8)

I went with Martin and Mears to start in the second group.  Both finished in the top 20, with Marting picking up 2nd in qualifying, and Casey leading a lap to earn bonus points.  All four drivers finished within 6 spots of each other, and Mears was the best of the bunch, thanks to his 10 point bonus.  As I said prior to the race, Biffle was THE guy in this group, unfortunately I’d already used all nine of his starts. 

Group 3 – David Reutimann(6), Travis Kvapil(3)

David Reutimann posted another top 20 finish, which is what you want from your 3rd tier of drivers, and earned a respectible 64 points, thanks to the lap led bonus.  The only better play from this group was AJ Allmendinger, with a 9th place finish.  It was good to see him get a good finish as he could be out of a ride as early as this weekend at Talladega, and this could get him another look with a different team.  Kvapil finished 2 laps down in 34th.

Recap

• Points for this race: 319 (Johnson, Martin, Mears, Reutimann)
• Most Possible Points: 352 (Johnson, Biffle, Ragan, Allmendinger)
• Season Points : 7959
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 56
• Overall Percentile : 96th

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, September 29th, 2008
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The Sprint Cup series heads to Kansas this weekend for the 3rd race of this season’s Chase for the Championship.  It’s also the second straight week that the name of the race is Camping World RV 400.  I’m sure the Roush trio hopes for more of the same this week as well.  It’s currently the only race for the top series at Kansas Speedway, one of the cookie-cutter 1.5 mile tracks.  The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(4) & Tony Stewart(4)

How do you not take Jimmie when he’s on a roll like this, especially on one of the 1.5 milers he seems to excel at?  Over the past 5 races, Johnson trails only Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards for points earned.  The 10 bonus points for leading laps is key here, as he has led in 4 of those races, and if quals are rained out (seems to be happening alot this year), he starts on the front row.  I probably would have went with Edwards as my second driver here, but I only have 2 more starts for him, and have a couple other races I’d like to use him in.  Tony Stewart is no slouch at Kansas, having only once finished outside the top 15.  Last year he dominated the race, but cut a tire and finished 39th…a tough break that can be ignored due to the trend of success.

Group 2 – Mark Martin(3), Casey Mears(8), Dale Earnhardt Jr.(3), Jamie McMurray(8)

If you have Biffle starts left, use him this week.  He’s won there before and the #16 team is absolutely rolling right now.  If you don’t, any combination of Martin, Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch and David Ragan or McMurray should be decent starts.  Martin has also won at Kansas before, when he was at Roush.  Driving Roush-Fenway Fords also gets Ragan and McMurray in the line-up this week as they have a habit of finishing in the top 5 at this track.   Mears gets the nod this week as Hendrick cars tend to run well on cookie cutters, and he’s fared well at Kansas in the past, finishing 4th last year and 2nd in 2006. 

Group 3 – David Reutimann(6), Travis Kvapil(3)

In the final group, it’s probably a good time to go with David Reutimann.  Michael Waltrip Racing seems to finally have the ship pointed in the right direction, and are achieving some decent finishes.  Reutimann is 10th overall in points over the past 5 races, the type of production you can’t ignore from this third tier of drivers.  Brian Vickers has had a solid season, and should be a solid pick this week, but again, I’m close to the limit on his starts, so I plugged in Kvapil, in hopes it’s those Roush-Yates engines that keep them up front, and Travis has a shot at a top 10 finish.

So that’s the roster for this week’s race.  Hopefully it’ll extend my 30 point lead over second place, and I can get a little breathing room down the stretch.  I’ll let you know on Monday which 4 drivers I went with, and provide an update on the standings.  Good luck to you and your teams this weekend.  Enjoy the race!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Friday, September 26th, 2008
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