The Pit Stall

It’s a good time to be a Busch.  Kyle, the younger of the 2 brothers extended the family winning streak to 3 races with a dominant victory in the Food City 500 at Bristol.  Don’t be surprised to see one or both of the Vegas natives up front this coming weekend at Martinsville, trying to make it 4.

One of the bigger stories of the race would have to be Mark Martin and Ryan Newman.  Both were in danger of being a go or go homer at Martinsville, thanks to some bad luck to start the season.  They both nailed down top 10s to give them a little bit of breathing room from the 36th position.

Group 1 – Jeff Gordon(8) & Kyle Busch(8)

I gave Gordon the start as I expected him to get his first win in this one.  He managed a 4th place finish, yet didn’t lead a single lap.  Definitely a finish that doesn’t hurt in the grand scheme of things.  Kyle on the other hand dominated the race leading almost 80% of the laps, and finishing 1st.

Group 2 – Denny Hamlin(8), Kasey Kahne(7), Kurt Busch(7), Tony Stewart(7)

I went with Hamlin and Kahne for this one, and was rewarded with a pair of top 5 finishes.  Hamlin finished 2nd and led for 7 laps, and Kahne finished 5th.  Busch and Stewart weren’t terrible options either with 11th and 17th place finishes respectively.

Group 3 – Aric Almirola(8), Bobby Labonte(9)

Almirola had a decent qualifying effort, rolling off in 18th, but finished a lackluster 35th.  Labonte on the other hand put in a decent Group 3 performance, with a 22nd place finish. 

Recap

• Points for this race: 286 (Gordon, Hamlin, Kahne, Almirola)
• Most Possible Points: 393 (Ky. Busch(Martin qual), Hamlin, Newman, Ambrose)
• Season Points : 1450
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 73
• Overall Percentile : 99th (2059 overall) 

Photo Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Pit Picks, Short Tracks by Site Admin - Wednesday, March 25th, 2009
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Is it just me, or does a weekend off make it seem like there is about a month between races?  Plus it seems like a pretty silly time to take a weekend off.  I could understand if Easter fell on this weekend, but to throw a break in before the top 35 rule begins to go by this season’s owner points seems somewhat counter productive to keeping a captive audience.  But what do I know?  I’m just a fan. 

The series is off to Bristol for some short track madness this weekend.  Bristol Motor Speedway is just over a half mile in length and features some relatively high banking, and until the resurfacing a couple years ago, used to promote lots of bumpin and banging all over the track.  The resurfacing allowed more side by side racing and now you don’t have to push someone out of the way, you can actually pass without a ‘friendly’ nudge.

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Jeff Gordon(9) & Kyle Busch(8)

Jeff Gordon has won the Bristol spring race 4 times in his career, taking the checkers 4 straight years (’95 – ’98), and the fall race once.  He has 5 pole awards to go with those 5 wins as well, and I’ll take all of the bonus points I can get.  Plus he leads the series heading into the race, so you know he’s performing.  I won’t be overly surprised if he wins either here or next weekend at Martinsville.   Kyle Busch has one victory at the track, but is third overall in average short track finish over the past 3 seasons to Gordon, and another solid choice in this spot, Kevin Harvick.

Group 2 - Kurt Busch(7), Denny Hamlin(9), Kasey Kahne(8), Tony Stewart(7)

Like Gordon, the elder Busch has 4 spring race victories at Bristol, and one in the fall.  He hasn’t been quite as successful in qualifying though, but does have one pole to show for his efforts.  Denny Hamlin’s background is short tracks, and I usually like to use him for most of the races under a mile.  He’s better on the flatter tracks at Martinsville and Richmond, but still a solid performer here.  Tony is having a terrific start to his ownership endeavor.  He sits 6th in points and has 3 top 10′s so far.  I’ve already burned 2 of his starts, so I’m more apt to save him to when he traditionally gets hot, the summer.  Kasey has had a solid start to the season.  He has only one top 10 finish (7th last race at Atlanta), but sits inside the top 10 in the driver standings.  That usually means consistancy, and that’s exactly what you want out of your drivers in a fantasy set up like this.

Group 3 – Aric Almirola(9), Bobby Labonte(9)

I’m giving Allmendinger a one week hiatus, as he has not been very good at short tracks in his short career.  Almirola on the other hand has been decent for a guy that’s been given limited seat time.  He has an average finish of 19th at the track and was inside the top 15 for both races last season.  That’d be gold for a group 3 driver.  Labonte is the class of this group no matter how you look at it, and should get a long look each week.  Personally I’d like to save him for a little later in the season, once most of my competitors have burned his starts and are stuck with guys outside the top 35 and spot starters.  Having an advantage like that down the stretch can be huge, and easily the difference between winning and losing.

Good luck with your picks and have a great weekend!

Filed under: Pit Picks, Short Tracks by Site Admin - Friday, March 20th, 2009
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 Well we’re four races in, and one thing is becoming quite clear.  The Blue Deuce is going to be a factor this season.  It looks like the new Dodge engine the Penske squad is running, is money on the intermediate speedways.  It didn’t matter who he was running down, or who was trying to run him down, Kurt had the answer every time.  If the package performs as well on the smaller tracks, the Miller Lite Dodge should have a spot in The Chase after a one year absense.

A caution in the middle of a green flag pit cycle threw a big wrench (not the one Kurt is holding in the picture) into the chances of most of the field.  Thanks to an absent minded crewman from the #47 team chasing a tire across the infield, several cars were trapped laps down, and struggled all day to get them back.  The incident occured with only 6 cars on the lead lap.  By the end of the race, only 12 cars had completed all 330 laps.

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(8) & Kyle Busch(8)

I went with Jimmie over Kyle in this one, and was rewarded with a 9th place finish and a 10 point bonus for leading a lap.  He tied for third overall for the group (with Kevin Harvick) after Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards.  Kyle finished mid-pack in 18th, thanks mostly to some untimely cautions, which pinned him laps down in traffic and he was never really a factor.

Group 2 – Kurt Busch(7), Tony Stewart(7), David Reutimann(9), Brian Vickers(9)

Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart got the nod this week.  Kurt thanks to his qualifying effort (outside front row, which almost assured him of leading a lap with Martin on the inside).  I definitely wasn’t disappointed, thanks to a domininant performance by the #2 car.  Busch won the race, and led the most laps, plus qualified second to score just 5 points under the max of 120.  Stewart didn’t look good in practice, but he ran well and finished 8th for a decent points day.  Vickers knocked down another top 5 and was second only to Busch in this group.  Reutimann had a performance I’m sure he’d like to forget, and finished 32nd.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(5), Bobby Labonte(9)

AJ Allmendinger got his 4th straight start for my squad, and had a respectible 17th place finish, the last car 2 laps down.  The finish was, however, tops for the third group.  Several teams took Bobby Labonte for the race after last week’s top 5, and were dinged big time for it, with a 40th place finish after engine problems forced them out.  Prior to that, he was all over the track and could never get a handle on the car.

Recap

• Points for this race: 333 (Johnson, Ku. Busch, Stewart, Allmendinger)
• Most Possible Points: 367 (J. Gordon (Martin qual), Ku. Busch, Vickers (McMurray, Montoya qual), Allmendinger)
• Season Points : 1164
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 85
• Overall Percentile : 99th (2726 overall) 

Photo Credit: Geoff Burke/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, March 9th, 2009
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 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(9) & Kyle Busch(8)

Not much needs to be said about these selections.  The 3 time defending champ and probably the most talented driver in the series.  Even if these guys don’t win the race, they’ll be out front leading laps, picking up the bonus points.  Jimmie has had a relatively slow start to his season, which to some extent isn’t a huge surprise.  The #48 team uses the first 26 races as a nice long test to get it cranked up when The Chase rolls around.  Plus there are only as many cookie cutter tracks over the first 26 as there are in the final 10, and everyone knows Johnson rocks those.

Group 2 - Kurt Busch(8), David Reutimann(9), Brian Vickers(9), Tony Stewart(8)

Reutimann and Vickers have been solid, both with top 10 finishes again last week, including a 4th for Reutimann.  The 2nd tier Toyota (ie…multi-car operations that are not Gibbs) teams are getting some consistency in their programs, which makes these guys solid options on 1.5 mile and up tracks.  The real question will be how they perform on the smaller circuits.  Tony has really impressed me thus far.  I wasn’t expecting much from that team in the early going, as it’s a relatively new operation and Tony usually doesn’t start ripping off wins until the weather warms up.  Hopefully Newman can start keeping some cars together, and putting some solid finishes in, as I’d really like to see Tony succeed as an owner.  Kurt Busch, and the Penske Dodge’s in general have stepped up their performance so far this season, running the new R6P8 engines.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(6), Bobby Labonte(9)

Top 5 for Bobby Labonte last week definitely gets him on the roster for this week, as does a long history of success at Atlanta.  He has 6 top series wins in his career here.  I don’t expect him to make it 7 this week, but if he can run towards the front for most of the race as he did last week, another top 10 isn’t out of the question.  AJ is still on the roster, despite a lackluster performance last week.  There isn’t much to pick from in this group, so you might as well use up the starts when you can.

Good luck with your picks and have a great weekend!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Friday, March 6th, 2009
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I don’t really have much to say about Las Vegas as I saw only the final 2 laps of the race, since I was visiting the family for dinner.  Was definitely cool to see Kyle Busch in Victory Lane at his home track, with big brother there to celebrate with him.

It was another decent week in the pool for me, picking up another 278 points (if nothing else, I’m consistent).  I nailed the race winner again this week, but unfortunately made the wrong selections in the later groups or this could have been a monster week.  I jumped up a fair bit in the overall standings this week, probably due to a pile of people riding the Matt Kenseth bandwagon to a 43rd place finish.  Ouch!

Group 1 – Kyle Busch(8) & Carl Edwards(9)

I had Kyle Busch winning this race (check out the predictions thread over at The Go Teams Go Forums if you don’t believe me), so I obviously started him, despite going to the back of the field due to an engine change, post qualifying.  Kyle ended up leading a pile of laps (unfortunately not the most), and taking the checkers to earn top points for the group.  Edwards finished on the lead lap, back in 17th and would have been a huge disappointment this week.  A couple blown engines this week from the Roush camp have to make you go hmmmmmm in the coming weeks as well.

Group 2 – Kurt Busch(8), Kasey Kahne(8), David Reutimann(9), Brian Vickers(9)

I went with the elder Busch this week as well, since he started well and should have had a boatload of confidence heading into Vegas.  A strong qualifying effort put him on the front row, but he ended up a lap down (I’m assuming he got caught having pitted early during Jeff Gordon’s tire mishap with several others) in 23rd.  Kahne was solid posting an 11th place finish which would have been great had I not left a pair of top 10′s on the bench in Reutimann and Vickers.  Ah well…it happens.  I think both the #83 and #00 could contend for a Chase spot this season.  I’d peg them somewhere between 8th and 15th when New Hampshire 2 rolls around.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(6), Marcos Ambrose(9)

Another Dinger start and a lackluster finish, 4 laps down in 33rd place.  I really should be PVR’ing these races so I know what’s going on post race.  Ambrose was decent again, finishing off the lead lap in 20th.  I’d expect him to stay in that range (15-25) for the first half of the season and then pick it up in the second half, and of course on road courses. 

Recap

• Points for this race: 278 (Ky. Busch, Ku. Busch, Kahne, Allmendinger)
• Most Possible Points: 365 (Ky. Busch (Johnson qual), Reutimann, Kahne (Ku. Busch qual), B. Labonte)
• Season Points : 831
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 13
• Overall Percentile : 93rd 

Photo Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009
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2009 Shelby 427 at Las Vegas

Week 3 in the Sprint Cup series sees the haulers head northeast across the California/Nevada border to the hometown of the Busch brothers, Las Vegas.  Vegas is a progressively banked, one and a half mile D-shaped oval track, that is part of one of the better overall facilities the series visits.  About a quarter of the Sprint Cup season is run on tracks of a similar configuration (the “cookie cutters”), so there is ample information on which to base your picks for this race.  Of those 10 races (5 of which were in the Chase…if you ask me, a bit of a disproportion), Carl Edwards won 5 of them, including the race at Vegas, although not without controversy, as he was penalized post race, for a loose oil tank lid.

This year’s race has been extended 27 miles in one of those ‘genius’ marketing ploys.  I find it funny sometimes, how easy Nascar moves on some things, and how stubborn they can be on others.  Such is life when sport is ruled by the almighty dollar, I guess.

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Carl Edwards(9) & Kyle Busch(9)

Roush Ford’s have been hot to start the season, and look to make it 3 victories in a row to start the season.  This time it won’t be Matt Kenseth taking the checkered flag (although he’ll probably be hanging around somewhere in the top 10).  As I already mentioned, Edwards was lights out on the cookie-cutters last season, and I think he’ll be money on them again this year.  I doubt he’ll win the 5 he did last season, but 2 or 3 isn’t out of the question.  Kyle Busch also had some success on this type of track last year, at least in the early going, before the disaster that was his Chase.  He won at both Atlanta and Chicago, during his torrid ‘regular season’, making him the only driver besides Carl to win multiple races on the mile and a halfs.  He’s looked great to start the season, and if not for being caught up in someone else’s mess at Daytona, he’d probably be in the top 3 in points right now.  Busch also has the best average finish over the past few years at the track.

Group 2 - Kurt Busch(9), David Reutimann(9), Brian Vickers(9), Kasey Kahne(9)

Why not take both Busch brothers at their home track?  I can’t see why not.  Kurt has a pair of top 10 finishes, and that new Dodge engine Penske ran last week should make them at least competitive again this season.  He has run well at Vegas, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to good finishes.  Look for that to change this weekend.  Reutimann hasn’t been all that hot at Vegas in the past couple seasons, but Toyota was still getting their program off the ground.  Now that they’re getting consistantly better efforts, don’t be surprised to see a third straight top 15 finish out of the #00.  Vickers is pretty much in the same boat as Reutimann, and should also benefit from the improved Toyota program.  If he wants to go ‘Chasing’ this year, he better bring it on these tracks.  Kasey Kahne finished 6th at Vegas last season, and also won at a similarly configured Charlotte (the only driver not in the top group to do so at 1.5 miles), earning him a spot on the roster this week.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(7), Marcos Ambrose(9)

It’s status quo in group 3 this week.  Still riding Allmendinger, even after a sub-par performance in Fontana, as he’s still one of the top 3 options, and still has an uncertain future.  Ambrose has put in decent performances in the first 2 races (17th and 22nd) and will probably hang around as the back up in this group until I have to start using someone else.

Good luck with your picks this weekend!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, February 26th, 2009
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NASCAR followed up a non-eventful finish to the Daytona 500 with another non-eventful finish in California, with Matt Kenseth winning his second straight race to open the 2009 season.  Maybe he needs ‘vanilla’ to go to Victory Lane?  The boring ‘finishes’ seem to be working for him.  Kenseth won the race off pit road in the 4th and final caution of the evening (all for rain, which I’m sure made several fans uneasy after Daytona’s shortened race) thanks to a big mistake in the pits by teammate Greg Biffle, and held of Jeff Gordon over the final 35 laps to take the checkers.   The win gives Kenseth an 81 point lead over Jeff Gordon to begin the season and more importantly has 20 bonus points in his back pocket if/when he makes The Chase.

Matt Kenseth wins 2009 Auto Club 500

Week 2 results ahead…

It was a solid week in the pool for me, picking up another 275 points (anything between 260 and 300 is decent, over 300 is kick ass).  I was bang on with the Kenseth prediction, his Roush teammates turned in ok performances, and Allmendinger was a bit of a disappointment.

Group 1 – Matt Kenseth(8) & Carl Edwards(9)

On Thursday I suggested Matt Kenseth would come away from California with another win to back up his Daytona performance.  He ran a solid race, got great stops from his pit crew, and caught a couple lucky breaks along the way.  Not only did he win the race, but he led the most laps and picked up the extra 10 points for that.  Carl Edwards was never really in contention in this one, but still managed a top 10 finishing in 7th.  He also led a lap and earned the 10 point bonus.

Group 2 – David Ragan(8), Jamie McMurray(7), Ryan Newman(9), Brian Vickers(9)

I went all Roush in the first two groups after Vickers was dropped to the back for an engine change after qualifying on the pole.  Apparently that was a mistake as McMurray couldn’t hold off Johnson to lead the first lap, and Vickers out-performed both he and Ragan.  Oh well…Vickers will have quite a few good races this season, and I think he has an outside shot at making The Chase.  McMurray and Ragan finished 16th and 17th respectively, which were ok, but to have a really good scoring week, you want your group 2 drivers in the top 15.  Fortunately they weren’t far off of that ‘goal’.  Newman had another tough week and finished 2 laps down in 28th. 

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(7), Marcos Ambrose(9)

I don’t know what happened to AJ in this one, as I missed a fair bit of the first half of the race.  I’m not 100% sure if the snooze was track induced or from being up late the night before.  By the time I woke up he was well back, and out of contention.  He ended up rolling across behind Newman in 29th.  Ambrose faired a bit better and ended up 22nd, one spot back of tops in the group.  Ambrose now sits tied for 20th in points with Casey Mears, and with a solid run at Vegas should be comfortably in the top 35 when the series gets to Bristol.

Recap

• Points for this race: 275 (Kenseth, Ragan, McMurray, Allmendinger)
• Most Possible Points: 359 (Kenseth (Johnson qual), Busch, Stewart (McMurray & Vickers qual), B. Labonte)
• Season Points : 553
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 3
• Overall Percentile : 87th

Photo Credit: Jason Smith/Getty Images

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, February 23rd, 2009
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