The Pit Stall

Another Michigan race, another fuel mileage snafu by the #48 team with Jimmie Johnson at the helm.  You gotta think that after they gave away a race in June, they’d know better than to gamble in August.  Especially when they had the best car in the field, and with all of the room to pass at this track.  This time it wasn’t a team mate that took the checkers…it was former team mate Brian Vickers getting the first ever win for the Red Bull team. 

Group 2 – Dale Earnhardt Jr(6), Brian Vickers(4), Sliced Bread(9), Kasey Kahne(4)

Vickers had one heck of a weekend.  Second in the Nationwide race, a Coors Light Pole Award, and to top it off, the first Sprint Cup series victory for the Red Bull Toyota team.  Mind you, he had a little help from a couple teams and their fuel mileage calculations, but still a great weekend.  Junior’s squad was sure not to gamble on fuel and it paid off with a 3rd place finish.  It was his first top 10 since the Talladega race in April.  It had to feel good for a team that’s been reeling for a while now.  Logano nailed down his 5th top 10 of the season with a 7th place finish, and still looks like a good option down the stretch, especially if you’ve run out of starts on your big guns.  Kahne rounded out a solid week by all of my picks in this group with an 11th place finish.

Group 3 – Brad Keselowski(7), AJ Allmendinger(4)

Both Keselowsking and Allmendinger finished just outside the top 20, and neither woulda hurt the squad for the week.  I’m glad I tabbed the Michigan native and saved a ‘Dinger start for down the stretch, and it didn’t cost me anything.

Recap

• Points for this race: 302 (Biffle, Earnhardt Jr, Vickers, Keselowski)
• Most Possible Points: 394 (Gordon (Martin qual), Vickers, Earnhardt Jr (Montoya qual), Hornish Jr)
• Season Points : 6567
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 692
• Overall Percentile : 99th (2365 overall) 

Photo Credit: Jason Smith/Getty Images

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, August 20th, 2009
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Wow…I’ve really been slacking on the picks.  This is the first time since May I’ve posted prior to the race/quals.  I guess this is a sign the busy summer is starting to wind down.  Hopefully you’re all still doing well in your leagues, and have saved a few key drivers for some much needed points down the stretch.

On tap this weekend is the Carfax 400 at Brooklyn, Michigan, a 2 mile D-shaped oval that is usually dominated by the Roush Fenway Fords.  The races at Michigan are seen by most to be rather bland, and there tends to be few wrecks, few cautions, and have a tendency to end up being fuel mileage affairs.  This usually means that the big names should still be around at the end, and chances are you won’t end up with a really low points day.

We have 4 races left until the Chase, which should have an impact on how a few drivers perform over the coming month.  Some drivers will be playing it safe, getting the most points they can without doing something stupid to take them out of contention.  Others have nothing to lose, either because they have no shot at dropping out of the top 12 or have no shot at making the Chase and no shot at dropping out of the top 35.

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Carl Edwards(6) & Greg Biffle(9)

Any of the top 3 Roush cars are a solid bet at Michigan, and you can pretty much pencil in 2 of the 3 to be in the top 5 when all is said and done.  All 3 have multiple wins at the track.  At this point in the season I’m a little more comfortable with Biffle and Edwards than I am with Kenseth.  This could be a make or break race for Kenseth, in regards to his Chase chances.

Group 2 - Dale Earnhardt Jr(7), Kasey Kahne(4), Joey Logano(9), Brian Vickers(5)

I think the saying is “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while”…but that’s not why I’m taking Junior this weekend.  The pressure is off, he has no shot at making the Chase, and he can just go out and run the race.  He does have a win (fuel-mileage) and a couple poles here, but I don’t think you’ll see either this weekend.  I do expect a solid top 10 finish though.  Vickers has been one of the top drivers over the past 5 races, and has the last 2 poles at Michigan.  Kasey Kahne has an average finish of under 10 in the past month or so, and that new Dodge power-plant seems to be doing wonders for the #9 car.  Look for him to contend for a win here.  Joey is on his second go-round on most tracks now, and his performance is improving steadily.  He’s not leading laps or contending for wins, but if you’re interested in saving starts for your big dogs, this is a good spot start.

Group 3 – Brad Keselowski(8), AJ Allmendinger(4)

Two drivers have been clearly the class of this group over the past few weeks, Marcos Ambrose and AJ Allmendinger.  I barely have any Ambrose left, and want to save a couple starts for the Fall segment, so ‘Dinger is my guaranteed to start car.  I tabbed Keselowski of the go-or-go-homers, on his home track.  The Hendrick entry is still working on making an impression to hopefully get into a full-time ride somewhere for 2010.  He’s ripped off 3 top 10s including a win at Talladega, and should be in contention for a solid top 10 to top 20 finish this weekend.

Good luck with your picks and enjoy a Sunday race for a change!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, August 13th, 2009
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I think I can get used to these Monday races.  I tend to be busy on most Sundays, so I miss alot of races, but thanks to the interwebs and a couple handy sites that post feeds to the races, I can listen and sometimes watch most events that are postponed to Mondays.  Yesterday I listened to most of the race, brought up the feed on my monitor to catch the replays of the Hornish, Gordon etc wreck and then the final few laps of the race.  My productivity level may not have been at an all time high though.

Tony Stewart runs a Heluva Good race to win at Watkins Glen.

I think Watkins Glen has to be my favourite race fantasy wise.  In the 3 years I’ve participated in the Yahoo! fantasy nascar game, I’m pretty sure this road course has been my top score each season.  On to the picks… 

Group 2 – Tony Stewart(2), Juan Montoya(2), Denny Hamlin(6), Kasey Kahne(4)

It was impossible for me not to start JPM and Tony considering they were both easily in the top 5 favourites going into the race.  I have built a big enough lead thus far to not have to worry about saving them, and just riding out the season with Logano, and a few others.  Tony and Juan did not disappoint, finishing 1st and 6th, contributing to a monster points day.  Tony also led the most for a solid bonus.  Hamlin and Kahne had decent finishes, with Denny 10th and Kahne 17th, after causing the wreck that sent Sam Hornish Jr spinning across the track, and damaging 5 cars.

Group 3 – Marcos Ambrose(2), Sam Hornish Jr(5)

Marcos Ambrose is in the same situation as Stewart and Montoya from the second group.  Clearly the class of the group at this track and not worth saving down the stretch.  He had a car capable of winning but had a few more laps on his tires then those around him down the stretch, and wound up finishing second to Stewart.  Still, it was Ambrose’s best finish in the Sprint Cup series, and completed a decent weekend, after winning the Nationwide event.  I have a feeling the Aussie might be in contention for a Chase spot next season, if he continues to improve at the rate he has in ’09.  Hornish was involved in a nasty wreck, and thankfully came out ok.  He ended up 36th.

Recap

• Points for this race: 383 (Ky Busch, Stewart, Montoya (Hamlin qual), Ambrose)
• Most Possible Points: 409 (Ky Busch (Johnson qual), Stewart, Ku Busch (Hamlin qual), Ambrose)
• Season Points : 6265
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 635
• Overall Percentile : 98th (3328 overall) 

Photo Credit: AP Photo/ David Duprey

Filed under: Pit Picks, Road Courses by Site Admin - Tuesday, August 11th, 2009
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Wow…I’ve been seriously slacking.  Can’t believe it’s been since Dover that I’ve updated.  It’s been a busy start to the summer, so this kinda fell by the wayside.  I’m not sure if it was the fact that I was saving starts, or not putting the effort into my picks I had earlier in the season that has caused the recent run of lousy performance I’ve been on.  Either way, my summer slows down after next weekend and I should get back to regular updates, and with that, get my team back on track. 

The good news is that despite my brutal stretch of suckage, I’m still in first by a decent margin.  I’ve only dropped 58 points from my overall lead, and still have a 330 point cushion.  On to this week’s results…

 

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(6), Jeff Gordon(8)

Jimmie Johnson and crew celebrate by smooching the bricks at Indy

Both drivers had won multiple times at the track, with Jimmie taking 2 of the past 3, so he was pretty much a no brainer this week.  Thanks to a speeding penalty by Juan Montoya, Jimmie took the checkers and the trophy, and got to smooch the bricks.  Gordon also had a top 10, coming across the line in 9th.

Group 2 – Tony Stewart(3), Juan Montoya(4), Denny Hamlin(6), Joey Logano(9)

Tony was a co-favourite (along with Johnson) at what is considered his “home track”.  He didn’t disappoint, with a 3rd place finish, keeping him in the overall series lead.  Juan Montoya was my second pick for this race, due to his knowledge of the track and prior success (2nd place in 2007…we’ll just ignore the 2008 debacle for all intents and purposes).  This race was his to win, after he dominated for most of the event, but a pit road speeding penalty derailed that, and he ended up with an 11th place finish.  Hamlin had a dismal performance after running well recently, and finished 34th.  Logano finished just behind Montoya in 12th and continues to impress heading down the stretch.  I think he’ll get used a fair bit in the last 16 races…especially since the Stewart/Newman/JPM starts are dwindling.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(4), Scott Speed(9)

I’ve left AJ on the bench since the announcement was made that he would be running more than just a handful of races.  After a recent rough stretch by my squad, I figured it was time to roll him back out there, since his performance has been better of late.  He ended up a respectable 20th place, which helped an overall solid week.  I had zero intentions of starting Speed, but he has qualified well in recent weeks, and I was hoping for some bonus points out of him.

Recap

• Points for this race: 343 (Johnson, Stewart, Montoya, Allmendinger)
• Most Possible Points: 373 (Johnson, Stewart, Vickers(Montoya, Earnhardt qual), Sorenson (Elliot qual))
• Season Points : 5609
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 330
• Overall Percentile : 98th (5971 overall) 

Photo Credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Filed under: Pit Picks, Speedways by Site Admin - Monday, July 27th, 2009
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Jimmie Johnson trying to out-flex Miles after winning the 2009 Autism Speaks 400

I was unable to catch any of the qualifying or practice results prior to this race (so my picks were what they were when I set them), nor was I able to watch the race, so I really have no clue what happened.  I really need to get in the routine of PVRing this stuff to watch afterwards.  My baseball playing habit is apparently much worse than my Nascar habit, so I have no insight into anything that went down on track from Friday to Sunday.  I think playing in a tournament with all proceeds going to a children’s charity (more specifically, a Neo-Natal Intensive Care unit at a hospital) gives me a decent excuse for this weekend.

The numbers in parentheses are how many starts I have remaining for each driver for the season.

Group 1 – Carl Edwards(8), Mark Martin(8)

It was a toss up between Edwards and Biffle in this spot but I chose Carl based on his recent performance (not necessarily finishes).  He ended up with a solid 7th place finish and led a few laps to pick up the 10 bonus points.  I was expecting a little better, but it definitely could have been worse.  Martin also knocked off another top 10 finish, working his way up from a 28th starting spot.

Group 2 – Ryan Newman(5), Juan Montoya(6), Denny Hamlin(6), Martin Truex Jr(9)

First the bad news…Ryan Newman’s top 5 streak is over.  The good news…he still had a decent day and finished in the top 10.  Montoya was my second pick in this group, getting the nod over the still yet to earn a start Truex.  He qualified well, starting inside the second row, but finished 30th after blowing a right front tire before the halfway point of the race.  Truex would have been a slightly better option with a 21st place finish, and Hamlin also blew a tire and finished several laps down in 36th after competing for the lead at the midpoint.

Group 3 – Sam Hornish Jr(7), Bobby Labonte(7)

Hornish had been decent lately, and I’d only used him once up until this weekend, so he got the start.  Pretty thrilled with a 12th place qual and 13th place finish out of my final group driver.  Labonte didn’t fare quite so well, finishing 28th.  I thought maybe some of that Roush success would brush off on the little brother Yates team…apparently not.

Recap

• Points for this race: 275 (Edwards, Newman, Montoya, Hornish)
• Most Possible Points: 372 (Johnson, Stewart, Ku. Busch (Reutimann, Kahne qual), Hornish (Sorenson qual))
• Season Points : 3764
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 386
• Overall Percentile : 99th (1318 overall) 

Photo Credit: Jason Smith/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Pit Picks, Short Tracks by Site Admin - Monday, June 1st, 2009
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Mother Nature is not a Kyle Busch fan.  She definitely made that clear this weekend, as Kyle came up empty handed in both the Nationwide and Sprint series races, despite having the dominant car in each event.  Kyle and many of the other race leaders pitting on cautions for rain handed Mike Bliss and David Reutimann victories, when the rains kept coming and the races were called.  I was happy to see Reutimann get to Victory Lane, but it would have been nice if he had ‘earned’ the first one.  Don’t be surprised if he does win a race later in the season, to validate what he accomplished this weekend.

David Reutimann wins the rain shortened 2009 Coca-Cola 600

Does anyone else think the countdown is on until Dale Earnhardt Jr has a new crew chief?  I can’t see Mr. Hendrick waiting around too long, after another dismal performance this weekend.  I’m not sure where they’d pull one from, since the other 3 Hendrick teams are performing quite well as is, but they have to do something, with Junior already 200+ points out of a Chase spot.

Group 1 – Mark Martin(8), Greg Biffle(9)

Mark Martin was tearing up the track yesterday.  He had a great car and I think he could have challenged for a win in a full race.  He was running with the leaders until a penalty for an errant tire on pit road put him to the back.  By the end of the race (which pretty much would have been the halfway point) he had worked himself back up to the top 15 and was still moving.  He ended up with a 17th place finish, which was a huge disappointment, considering how well he ran.  The Biff was towards the front for a bit after a two-tire stop jumped them 15 spots on a caution, but he was never really in contention and finished 20th.

Group 2 – Ryan Newman(6), Kasey Kahne(6), David Reutimann(8), Brian Vickers(8)

Ryan Newman continues his top 5 streak with a 2nd place finish.  He had a great car and was running with the leaders until a pit miscue dropped him down in the field.  He was working himself back through the field, and chose to stay out on the final caution which turned out to be a great move.  Kasey Kahne spent most of the race towards the front, and had the race gone the distance, he very likely would have been better than his 7th place finish.  I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do with the new Dodge engine in the coming weeks.  We’ve already covered Reutimann and his victory.  Vickers, like Kahne was in the mix all day, and ended up with a very positive result at 5th.  Solid picks all around in this group.

Group 3 – Bobby Labonte(7), Reed Sorenson(9)

I was really wanting to start Sorenson here to save Labonte in case I waste away my lead later in the season, but I just couldn’t do it.  I’m definitely glad I went with my gut on this one as Labonte had an solid 12th place finish, and Sorenson managed a 35th, one lap down of the winner.

Recap

• Points for this race: 313 (Martin, Newman, Kahne, Labonte)
• Most Possible Points: 412 (Busch (Gordon qual), Reutimann, Newman, Gordon)
• Season Points : 3489
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 318
• Overall Percentile : 99th (1335 overall) 

Photo Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Tuesday, May 26th, 2009
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Since about the 5th race of the season, the Hendrick and Stewart Haas teams have been the class of the field.  I’d suspect much of the same this weekend.  I’m sure most teams will tab one of the 3 Hendrick cars in the top group, and at least one of Newman, Stewart, Junior in the second group to carry the torch for this race.  Picking the right combination will be the key.

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Mark Martin(9) & Greg Biffle(9)

Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson will be on a pile of rosters this weekend, but I’ve used them for 6 of 11 races already.  The next best option is Mark Martin, who excels at putting in laps, staying out of trouble, and being there when it matters.  In a 600 mile race, that strategy could pay big dividends, and if/when it does, I’ll gladly reap the benefits over those that took the top 2 dogs in the Hendrick shop.  Greg Biffle has been quietly putting together a solid stretch of good finishes, and is second only to Tony Stewart in average finish over the last 5 races.  He, like Johnson, excels at the cookie cutter tracks, and could very well put in a top 5 or 10.

Group 2 - Ryan Newman(7), Kasey Kahne(7), David Reutimann(8), Brian Vickers(8)

Newman has been one of the best performers of late, behind only Stewart and Biffle.  He should do well this weekend (and he starts on the pole…yeah, I didn’t realize quals were Thurs this week so I’m a little late getting this off), and I’d expect a solid top 10 run out of the #39.  Normally I’d go with Stewart as well, but I think I’m going to try and balance out my Hendrick Lite starts, and push Tony a little more when he traditionally does well and goes on a tear, in late June and July.  Kahne won the event last year and although I don’t think he’ll challenge for the win, I think he’ll lay down a solid performance in possibly his last race with the old Dodge engine (assuming RPM gives their top dog the new engine at Dover as is suspected).  Reutimann and Vickers were put on the roster, in hopes that Toyota power would earn some qual points…unfortunately neither could make the top 4, although Vickers laid down a run good enough for 8th.  I’m debating using him ahead of Kahne, figuring Kasey’s performance will pick up with the new motor, just like Kurt Busch’s did.

Group 3 – Bobby Labonte(8), Reed Sorenson(9)

I’ve used alot of Allmendinger and Ambrose already, and figured this week is as good as any to start spreading around some starts and prepping for the second half of the season.  Having close to a one race cushion on second place at this point in the season makes life alot easier, since I basically have a full mulligan.  Sorenson hasn’t qualifed well at all lately, but is improving his position an average of 17 spots each race, so I may just give him his first run of the year, despite his 42nd starting position.

Good luck with your picks and to all my American friends…have a great long weekend!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Friday, May 22nd, 2009
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