The Pit Stall

Another four races are in the books and it’s time for a little review and update on my previous predictions.  Some things played out as expected, and of course others didn’t.  The top 12 after Richmond could very well be the same as the top 12 currently, but I’m not ruling out a couple drivers from making a jump just yet.

Count Them In

I lumped Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch all into the ’locked in’ group and I don’t think that has changed.  They occupy 4 of the top 5 spots and each have a 60+ point per race cushion.  Jimmie has had an uncharacteristic bad spell, and has seemed to find trouble wherever trouble could be found.  Can any of it be attributed to being a new parent, and a possible lack of focus for the time being?  I’m sure the rest of the Chase competitors hope so.  While we’re at it, we might as well add Jeff Burton to the locked in category.  He’s been money since my last post and went in the complete opposite direction I was expecting. 

Some Numbers

Note: Points cutoff is relative to the 12th position.  Recent Avg is over the past 5 races.  Tracks Avg is the Average finish (not including 2010) at the remaining 4 tracks (all races).

Tony Stewart

Tony is in a great spot and has had a solid run of good finishes (4 straight top 10s).  He also has the best stats of the remaining drivers at the next four tracks.  Lock him in! 

Denny Hamlin

Denny has cooled of late after winning 5 of 10 races between March and June.  His best finish in the past few races was at a traditionally weak track for him in Chicago.  He still has a pretty large cushion and the remaining tracks he’s been decent at, with a favourite of his to end the regular season (Richmond).  It’ll be some sort of travesty for him not to make it at this point.

Kyle Busch

The younger Busch brother has put up 2 months of ‘meh’.  Since the first Michigan race, which saw an end to an 8 race streak of top 10′s, he’s only managed 2 finishes of 10th or better, and only led during 2 of those races.  Very uncharacteristic of a guy that seemed to always be up near the front, gunning for it.  Maybe they’ve been pacing themselves and trying some things out prior to the Chase, since they were in a pretty comfortable spot.  Either way, Kyle is pretty safely in the top 12.

Matt Kenseth

It’s been typical Matt Kenseth lately, with a heap of consistent finishes.  I’m sure he’d like to be consistently finishing somewhere in the 5-10 range instead of 12-18, but that will still get him into the Chase.  The Roush Fords have stepped up their game of late, and that’s a good sign heading into the playoff.

Jeff Burton

Jeff Burton has torn it up since I last posted, at tracks that he’s not usually that strong at.  He’s been second to only Carl Edwards over the past 5 races.  As previously mentioned, he’s now included in the locked in group.

Greg Biffle/Carl Edwards

Greg Biffle has been up and down the past 5 races, but he does have that all important 1st with for Roush Fenway this season.  He’s still in danger of falling out, but the next 4 tracks are ones he does well at.  If Biffle can nail down a typical solid Roush performance at Michigan, it would go a long way to putting him in the post-season.  Carl Edwards has been on a tear.  His last 5 races have all been top 7 finishes, and he’s averaged nearly 15 points per race better than anyone in the field over that span.  He’ll lock himself in with what I expect will be another top 5 this weekend at Brooklyn.

Dale Earnhardt Jr

I said Dale Earnhardt Jr would have to greatly improve his performance on the Indy to Watkins Glen stretch to be a factor in the Championship standings. He didn’t.  He finished each of the past 4 races between 23rd-27th.  I’m still not writing him off, as he has the second best stats of any driver over the next 4 tracks.  He just has a big hill to climb.

Outside Looking In

Burton going on a tear pretty much means there’s only really 1 or 2 spots still up for grabs, depending on how you look at things.  Earnhardt Jr. sits on the outside looking in and as expected Mark Martin has worked his way into the top 12.  Bowyer is not far behind, and I don’t think I can completely write him off with how well the Childress teams are running.  Kasey Kahne has continued to run well (6th best over last 5 races), but he may have been too far back to begin with.  It’ll take a monumental collapse by a number of drivers or a miraculous stretch by himself to make it.  Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond haven’t exactly been kind to Kasey.  McMurray has moved himself up the charts with a big win at Indy and other solid finishes, but again, he’s struggled at the upcoming tracks.

So that leaves my expected Chase drivers currently looking like this:  Harvick, Gordon, Johnson, Busch x2, Hamlin, Kenseth, Stewart, Biffle, Edwards, Martin, Burton. (changes in bold)

Filed under: Pit Picks by Site Admin - Wednesday, August 11th, 2010
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Over the past few weeks, the ‘Chase for the Championship’ has been mentioned more and more on the NASCAR race broadcasts. With the regular season close to three quarters finished, it’s a good time to take a look at who the 12 contenders for the title may be. We’ll take a look at the current standings, recent performance and also driver history at the remaining 8 tracks.

Count Them In

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch are locked in. All 4 drivers currently have at least 300 points on 13th place, and barring a major catastrophe will be competing for the 2010 crown. I’m also going to eliminate everyone from Jamie McMurray on down as they’re all at least 200 points south of the 12th place cutoff, and have too many drivers to jump. That leaves us with 14 drivers vying for the remaining 8 spots.

Some Numbers

Note: Points cutoff is relative to the 12th position.  Recent Avg is over the past 5 races.  Tracks Avg is the Average finish (not including 2010) at the remaining 8 tracks (all races).  Wins is wins at the remaining 8 tracks (all races).  I may have punched in a number or two wrong, but they should be relatively accurate.

Tony Stewart

The first thing that stands out to me looking at this chart is Tony Stewart will definitely be a part of the Chase.  He always gets ‘hot’ in the summer months, and this year looks to be no exception.  He’s third, behind Harvick and Johnson for points over the past 5 races.  He also has by far the best average finish and most wins at the remaining regular season tracks. 

Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin looks to be in a solid enough position to hold down the 6th spot in the post season.  He has a large cushion, a solid average and wins at a number of the tracks left on the schedule.  His weakest race left is this coming weekend at Chicagoland Speedway and he still averages a top 20 finish there.

Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch has been ‘struggling’ of late, which has taken him out of the ‘absolutes’ group and forced us to take a look at where he stacks up against the rest of the cut off group.  He’s been out front, and leading laps, but hasn’t been getting the finishes.  He has average finishes of 12th or better at 4 of the remaining tracks though, including a 6.0 at Richmond.  I’d be surprised if he’s not locked in and going for ‘bonus’ points there.

Matt Kenseth

Despite the much discussed lack of speed in the Ford camp, Matt Kenseth has been his usual consistent self, racking up decent finishes and putting himself in a position to compete for a championship.  He’s behind only Stewart and Hamlin for average finish, with only 1 track being outside of a 15th average finish.  I’ll give him the nod as well.

Jeff Burton

Jeff Burton looks to have a solid cushion with close to 200 points on 13th and has run well of late.  That said, I’m not completely sold on his chances to make it in.  200 points over 8 races is 25 points per race.  That’s anywhere between 5 and 8 positions per race.  There’s some solid drivers just outside the cutoff that I could see pulling that off.   Burtons chances could be made or broken at The Glen, where he has easily the worst average finish of anyone we’re looking at any track.   Solid finishes at Chicago and Indy would go a long way towards giving him some breathing room at the road course.

Greg Biffle/Carl Edwards

Greg Biffle has been decent as of late (10th of all drivers over past 5) but he hasn’t been up front leading laps, and those bonus points missed out on could come back to haunt him come Richmond.  I think unless Roush gets this FR9 engine figured out, one of Biffle or Carl Edwards is going to come up short and Edwards has better numbers over this stretch, including a couple sub 10th place averages.

Dale Earnhardt Jr

Dale Earnhardt Jr will have to greatly improve his performance on the Indy to Watkins Glen stretch to be a factor in the Championship standings.  He’s averaging a finish of 20th or higher at all 3 tracks, but has been quite successful at the other 5.  His Daytona weekend should give him the confidence needed to make a serious push to stay in the top 12.  I expect him to be the 3rd Hendrick car in the Chase.

Outside Looking In

So that leaves 2 potential spots for those that currently find themselves 13th or lower.  I’d say there’s 3 drivers that have a legitimate shot at finding themselves in those spots.  The first is Mark Martin.  His Chicago through Watkins Glen stats are second to only Tony Stewart, which if he can continue the trend should put him in a good position to play it safe down the stretch.  That would put all 4 Hendrick cars in the Chase…much to the chagrin of a large number of fans.

Kasey Kahne has been money of late (pretty much since it was announced he’d be going to Hendrick Motorsports), and I think we’ll see him make a serious run at the 12th spot, despite being 154 points back currently.  His stats don’t really back it up, as pretty much everyone ahead of him has better numbers.  I’m picking Kasey for strong finishes at both Chicago (3rd in ’09) and Indianapolis (7th in 08 and 09) to get him right back in the thick of things.

If Kahne can’t make up the ground, I think the spot goes to either Burton or Bowyer (unless something ‘clicks’ at Roush as mentioned earlier).  I don’t think Newman, Reutimann or Logano are Chase-worthy this season.  I think Joey is still a season away from being included.  With his continued improvement he should be a factor in 2011.

So that leaves my Chase drivers looking like this: Harvick, Gordon, Johnson, Busch x2, Hamlin, Kenseth, Stewart, Earnhardt, Edwards, Martin, Kahne.  Ten of the twelve currently inside the cutoff will remain there.

I’ll be back after a few races to re-visit the issue, and take a look at how things are shaping up with my expectations.  Feel free to leave your thoughts, whether you agree or disagree in the comments.  Let me know who you think the 12 Chasers will be.

Filed under: Pit Picks by Site Admin - Friday, July 9th, 2010
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The long and grueling Sprint Cup season has finally come to an end, and my weekends seem a little empty now.  I was talking to a friend on Saturday night and he posed the question, “What do we do tomorrow with no race?”  I hadn’t really even considered it until then.  I guess I watch football, or play some Nascar 09 on the PS3, or maybe even get a head start on getting the site prepped for 2010.  Before that, I best recap the season that was for my ‘Redneck This’ team on Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

It was easily my best season in Yahoo Fantasy Nascar.   Those of you that followed along in the early season, saw I had my team rolling and was in the 99th percentile and hovering around the top 1000.  Amazingly enough, I was able to do that without buring out any of my driver allotments.  At the end of the Spring Segment I had a 260 point lead on second place.  In the summer I kept cruising, besting the next highest competitor in my pool by 378.  The fall was another story but I still managed to take over the top spot on the last week by 18 points.  In the end I won my second straight title in that league by a comfortable 715 point margin.

In the grande scheme of the yahoo overall, the team finished in the 99th percentile, besting my 98th from the prior season, and was 467th overall.  Had I avoided Dale Jr all season, I probably would have finished higher still.

Speaking of Junior, he killed me in my money league.  It was a straight box type pool, that you select at the start of the season.  Trades are available under certain circumstances, but if you need a trade, you don’t have a shot to win anyways.  Needless to say, poor performance by Junior was the only reason this league was even close, and I ended up losing by a whopping 3 points (basically 3 positions on the track).  Marcos Ambrose cutting a tire while leading at Miami didn’t exactly help the cause either.  Ah well…I’m happy with second place (out of over 175).  It was a nice little improvement on the 5th or 6th from the previous year.  Hopefully I can keep this little run of ‘luck’ going into 2010.

All in all it was a fun and profitable season, and I’m definitely looking forward to February and doing it all over again.  Over the off-season, I’m going to make some changes to the way I do pit picks, possibly making it a bit more general (not specific to the yahoo format), and covering multiple races at a time.  I hope all of you did well in your respective leagues, and I look forward to hearing from some of you again soon!  Have a great holiday and see you all in Feb!!

Photo Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, December 7th, 2009
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"Does anyone know where I can find a 8' by 11' sheet of Bristol Board?"

If you’re leading a race with 10 to go, is there anyone you’d like to see behind you more than Mark Martin?  He’s probably the one guy on the track that you know will race you clean and not put you into a wall or spin you to get the win.  It was a great race by both Kyle Busch, and Martin, at a time when they really needed it.  Martin moved up to 10th spot, only 60 points clear of the 13th place Busch, who is now only 34 points out of that important 12th position.  Atlanta and New Hampshire should be interesting with so many drivers near the cut off. 

Group 2 – Denny Hamlin (5), Sliced Bread(8), Dale Earnhardt Jr (6), Kurt Busch(4)

My Group B drivers were solid again this week, with 3 of the 4 posting top 10s.  Unfortunately I started the one that didn’t (Logano), and a stellar week was downgraded to good as a result.  After a solid qualifying effort, Logano got rear ended by Dave Blaney (this is what happens when start and parkers stay on the track), and not long after blew a tire, and spent the rest of the night with a damaged race car.  Hamlin was my other start, and he didn’t disappoint, coming from the back to finish 5th.  A couple more short tracks on the schedule guarantee a couple more Hamlin starts.  Earnhardt followed up his 3rd at Michigan with another top 10 (9th), easily his best back to back result all season.  Kurt Busch also scored a top 10, coming across the stripe in 7th position.  I’m liking where I sit with regards to starts down the stretch…and am already starting to plan out who I’m going to run where.

Group 3 – Scott Speed(8), Sam Hornish Jr(5)

Speed followed up his second best qualifying effort of the season, with his second best finish.  The decent result (15th)trimmed the gap Speed needs to make up to get into the top 35 to 115 points.  I definitely think that is doable over the final 12 races, to guarantee the #82 a  spot in the first 5 races of 2010.  The fact he put up a top 15 at a tough track like Bristol should give him a little bit of confidence down the stretch, as he, like Logano will be visiting alot of tracks for the second time.  Hornish was in the top 20 for alot of the race, but got mixed up in a wreck, when some cars ahead of him checked up.  Not long after that, he over-heated and finished 35th.  A big disappointment, as no doubt several people picked him after a few solid runs recently.

Recap

• Points for this race: 289 (Ky Busch, Hamlin, Logano, Speed)
• Most Possible Points: 372 (Martin (Biffle qual), Hamlin, Ku Busch, Ambrose (Speed qual))
• Season Points : 6856
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 697
• Overall Percentile : 99th (1907 overall) 

Photo Credit: Jason Smith/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Pit Picks, Short Tracks by Site Admin - Monday, August 24th, 2009
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Another Michigan race, another fuel mileage snafu by the #48 team with Jimmie Johnson at the helm.  You gotta think that after they gave away a race in June, they’d know better than to gamble in August.  Especially when they had the best car in the field, and with all of the room to pass at this track.  This time it wasn’t a team mate that took the checkers…it was former team mate Brian Vickers getting the first ever win for the Red Bull team. 

Group 2 – Dale Earnhardt Jr(6), Brian Vickers(4), Sliced Bread(9), Kasey Kahne(4)

Vickers had one heck of a weekend.  Second in the Nationwide race, a Coors Light Pole Award, and to top it off, the first Sprint Cup series victory for the Red Bull Toyota team.  Mind you, he had a little help from a couple teams and their fuel mileage calculations, but still a great weekend.  Junior’s squad was sure not to gamble on fuel and it paid off with a 3rd place finish.  It was his first top 10 since the Talladega race in April.  It had to feel good for a team that’s been reeling for a while now.  Logano nailed down his 5th top 10 of the season with a 7th place finish, and still looks like a good option down the stretch, especially if you’ve run out of starts on your big guns.  Kahne rounded out a solid week by all of my picks in this group with an 11th place finish.

Group 3 – Brad Keselowski(7), AJ Allmendinger(4)

Both Keselowsking and Allmendinger finished just outside the top 20, and neither woulda hurt the squad for the week.  I’m glad I tabbed the Michigan native and saved a ‘Dinger start for down the stretch, and it didn’t cost me anything.

Recap

• Points for this race: 302 (Biffle, Earnhardt Jr, Vickers, Keselowski)
• Most Possible Points: 394 (Gordon (Martin qual), Vickers, Earnhardt Jr (Montoya qual), Hornish Jr)
• Season Points : 6567
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 692
• Overall Percentile : 99th (2365 overall) 

Photo Credit: Jason Smith/Getty Images

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, August 20th, 2009
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Wow…I’ve really been slacking on the picks.  This is the first time since May I’ve posted prior to the race/quals.  I guess this is a sign the busy summer is starting to wind down.  Hopefully you’re all still doing well in your leagues, and have saved a few key drivers for some much needed points down the stretch.

On tap this weekend is the Carfax 400 at Brooklyn, Michigan, a 2 mile D-shaped oval that is usually dominated by the Roush Fenway Fords.  The races at Michigan are seen by most to be rather bland, and there tends to be few wrecks, few cautions, and have a tendency to end up being fuel mileage affairs.  This usually means that the big names should still be around at the end, and chances are you won’t end up with a really low points day.

We have 4 races left until the Chase, which should have an impact on how a few drivers perform over the coming month.  Some drivers will be playing it safe, getting the most points they can without doing something stupid to take them out of contention.  Others have nothing to lose, either because they have no shot at dropping out of the top 12 or have no shot at making the Chase and no shot at dropping out of the top 35.

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Carl Edwards(6) & Greg Biffle(9)

Any of the top 3 Roush cars are a solid bet at Michigan, and you can pretty much pencil in 2 of the 3 to be in the top 5 when all is said and done.  All 3 have multiple wins at the track.  At this point in the season I’m a little more comfortable with Biffle and Edwards than I am with Kenseth.  This could be a make or break race for Kenseth, in regards to his Chase chances.

Group 2 - Dale Earnhardt Jr(7), Kasey Kahne(4), Joey Logano(9), Brian Vickers(5)

I think the saying is “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while”…but that’s not why I’m taking Junior this weekend.  The pressure is off, he has no shot at making the Chase, and he can just go out and run the race.  He does have a win (fuel-mileage) and a couple poles here, but I don’t think you’ll see either this weekend.  I do expect a solid top 10 finish though.  Vickers has been one of the top drivers over the past 5 races, and has the last 2 poles at Michigan.  Kasey Kahne has an average finish of under 10 in the past month or so, and that new Dodge power-plant seems to be doing wonders for the #9 car.  Look for him to contend for a win here.  Joey is on his second go-round on most tracks now, and his performance is improving steadily.  He’s not leading laps or contending for wins, but if you’re interested in saving starts for your big dogs, this is a good spot start.

Group 3 – Brad Keselowski(8), AJ Allmendinger(4)

Two drivers have been clearly the class of this group over the past few weeks, Marcos Ambrose and AJ Allmendinger.  I barely have any Ambrose left, and want to save a couple starts for the Fall segment, so ‘Dinger is my guaranteed to start car.  I tabbed Keselowski of the go-or-go-homers, on his home track.  The Hendrick entry is still working on making an impression to hopefully get into a full-time ride somewhere for 2010.  He’s ripped off 3 top 10s including a win at Talladega, and should be in contention for a solid top 10 to top 20 finish this weekend.

Good luck with your picks and enjoy a Sunday race for a change!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, August 13th, 2009
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I think I can get used to these Monday races.  I tend to be busy on most Sundays, so I miss alot of races, but thanks to the interwebs and a couple handy sites that post feeds to the races, I can listen and sometimes watch most events that are postponed to Mondays.  Yesterday I listened to most of the race, brought up the feed on my monitor to catch the replays of the Hornish, Gordon etc wreck and then the final few laps of the race.  My productivity level may not have been at an all time high though.

Tony Stewart runs a Heluva Good race to win at Watkins Glen.

I think Watkins Glen has to be my favourite race fantasy wise.  In the 3 years I’ve participated in the Yahoo! fantasy nascar game, I’m pretty sure this road course has been my top score each season.  On to the picks… 

Group 2 – Tony Stewart(2), Juan Montoya(2), Denny Hamlin(6), Kasey Kahne(4)

It was impossible for me not to start JPM and Tony considering they were both easily in the top 5 favourites going into the race.  I have built a big enough lead thus far to not have to worry about saving them, and just riding out the season with Logano, and a few others.  Tony and Juan did not disappoint, finishing 1st and 6th, contributing to a monster points day.  Tony also led the most for a solid bonus.  Hamlin and Kahne had decent finishes, with Denny 10th and Kahne 17th, after causing the wreck that sent Sam Hornish Jr spinning across the track, and damaging 5 cars.

Group 3 – Marcos Ambrose(2), Sam Hornish Jr(5)

Marcos Ambrose is in the same situation as Stewart and Montoya from the second group.  Clearly the class of the group at this track and not worth saving down the stretch.  He had a car capable of winning but had a few more laps on his tires then those around him down the stretch, and wound up finishing second to Stewart.  Still, it was Ambrose’s best finish in the Sprint Cup series, and completed a decent weekend, after winning the Nationwide event.  I have a feeling the Aussie might be in contention for a Chase spot next season, if he continues to improve at the rate he has in ’09.  Hornish was involved in a nasty wreck, and thankfully came out ok.  He ended up 36th.

Recap

• Points for this race: 383 (Ky Busch, Stewart, Montoya (Hamlin qual), Ambrose)
• Most Possible Points: 409 (Ky Busch (Johnson qual), Stewart, Ku Busch (Hamlin qual), Ambrose)
• Season Points : 6265
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 635
• Overall Percentile : 98th (3328 overall) 

Photo Credit: AP Photo/ David Duprey

Filed under: Pit Picks, Road Courses by Site Admin - Tuesday, August 11th, 2009
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