The Pit Stall

Another Michigan race, another fuel mileage snafu by the #48 team with Jimmie Johnson at the helm.  You gotta think that after they gave away a race in June, they’d know better than to gamble in August.  Especially when they had the best car in the field, and with all of the room to pass at this track.  This time it wasn’t a team mate that took the checkers…it was former team mate Brian Vickers getting the first ever win for the Red Bull team. 

Group 2 – Dale Earnhardt Jr(6), Brian Vickers(4), Sliced Bread(9), Kasey Kahne(4)

Vickers had one heck of a weekend.  Second in the Nationwide race, a Coors Light Pole Award, and to top it off, the first Sprint Cup series victory for the Red Bull Toyota team.  Mind you, he had a little help from a couple teams and their fuel mileage calculations, but still a great weekend.  Junior’s squad was sure not to gamble on fuel and it paid off with a 3rd place finish.  It was his first top 10 since the Talladega race in April.  It had to feel good for a team that’s been reeling for a while now.  Logano nailed down his 5th top 10 of the season with a 7th place finish, and still looks like a good option down the stretch, especially if you’ve run out of starts on your big guns.  Kahne rounded out a solid week by all of my picks in this group with an 11th place finish.

Group 3 – Brad Keselowski(7), AJ Allmendinger(4)

Both Keselowsking and Allmendinger finished just outside the top 20, and neither woulda hurt the squad for the week.  I’m glad I tabbed the Michigan native and saved a ‘Dinger start for down the stretch, and it didn’t cost me anything.

Recap

• Points for this race: 302 (Biffle, Earnhardt Jr, Vickers, Keselowski)
• Most Possible Points: 394 (Gordon (Martin qual), Vickers, Earnhardt Jr (Montoya qual), Hornish Jr)
• Season Points : 6567
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 692
• Overall Percentile : 99th (2365 overall) 

Photo Credit: Jason Smith/Getty Images

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, August 20th, 2009
No Comments

Wow…I’ve really been slacking on the picks.  This is the first time since May I’ve posted prior to the race/quals.  I guess this is a sign the busy summer is starting to wind down.  Hopefully you’re all still doing well in your leagues, and have saved a few key drivers for some much needed points down the stretch.

On tap this weekend is the Carfax 400 at Brooklyn, Michigan, a 2 mile D-shaped oval that is usually dominated by the Roush Fenway Fords.  The races at Michigan are seen by most to be rather bland, and there tends to be few wrecks, few cautions, and have a tendency to end up being fuel mileage affairs.  This usually means that the big names should still be around at the end, and chances are you won’t end up with a really low points day.

We have 4 races left until the Chase, which should have an impact on how a few drivers perform over the coming month.  Some drivers will be playing it safe, getting the most points they can without doing something stupid to take them out of contention.  Others have nothing to lose, either because they have no shot at dropping out of the top 12 or have no shot at making the Chase and no shot at dropping out of the top 35.

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Carl Edwards(6) & Greg Biffle(9)

Any of the top 3 Roush cars are a solid bet at Michigan, and you can pretty much pencil in 2 of the 3 to be in the top 5 when all is said and done.  All 3 have multiple wins at the track.  At this point in the season I’m a little more comfortable with Biffle and Edwards than I am with Kenseth.  This could be a make or break race for Kenseth, in regards to his Chase chances.

Group 2 - Dale Earnhardt Jr(7), Kasey Kahne(4), Joey Logano(9), Brian Vickers(5)

I think the saying is “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while”…but that’s not why I’m taking Junior this weekend.  The pressure is off, he has no shot at making the Chase, and he can just go out and run the race.  He does have a win (fuel-mileage) and a couple poles here, but I don’t think you’ll see either this weekend.  I do expect a solid top 10 finish though.  Vickers has been one of the top drivers over the past 5 races, and has the last 2 poles at Michigan.  Kasey Kahne has an average finish of under 10 in the past month or so, and that new Dodge power-plant seems to be doing wonders for the #9 car.  Look for him to contend for a win here.  Joey is on his second go-round on most tracks now, and his performance is improving steadily.  He’s not leading laps or contending for wins, but if you’re interested in saving starts for your big dogs, this is a good spot start.

Group 3 – Brad Keselowski(8), AJ Allmendinger(4)

Two drivers have been clearly the class of this group over the past few weeks, Marcos Ambrose and AJ Allmendinger.  I barely have any Ambrose left, and want to save a couple starts for the Fall segment, so ‘Dinger is my guaranteed to start car.  I tabbed Keselowski of the go-or-go-homers, on his home track.  The Hendrick entry is still working on making an impression to hopefully get into a full-time ride somewhere for 2010.  He’s ripped off 3 top 10s including a win at Talladega, and should be in contention for a solid top 10 to top 20 finish this weekend.

Good luck with your picks and enjoy a Sunday race for a change!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Thursday, August 13th, 2009
No Comments

Mother Nature is not a Kyle Busch fan.  She definitely made that clear this weekend, as Kyle came up empty handed in both the Nationwide and Sprint series races, despite having the dominant car in each event.  Kyle and many of the other race leaders pitting on cautions for rain handed Mike Bliss and David Reutimann victories, when the rains kept coming and the races were called.  I was happy to see Reutimann get to Victory Lane, but it would have been nice if he had ‘earned’ the first one.  Don’t be surprised if he does win a race later in the season, to validate what he accomplished this weekend.

David Reutimann wins the rain shortened 2009 Coca-Cola 600

Does anyone else think the countdown is on until Dale Earnhardt Jr has a new crew chief?  I can’t see Mr. Hendrick waiting around too long, after another dismal performance this weekend.  I’m not sure where they’d pull one from, since the other 3 Hendrick teams are performing quite well as is, but they have to do something, with Junior already 200+ points out of a Chase spot.

Group 1 – Mark Martin(8), Greg Biffle(9)

Mark Martin was tearing up the track yesterday.  He had a great car and I think he could have challenged for a win in a full race.  He was running with the leaders until a penalty for an errant tire on pit road put him to the back.  By the end of the race (which pretty much would have been the halfway point) he had worked himself back up to the top 15 and was still moving.  He ended up with a 17th place finish, which was a huge disappointment, considering how well he ran.  The Biff was towards the front for a bit after a two-tire stop jumped them 15 spots on a caution, but he was never really in contention and finished 20th.

Group 2 – Ryan Newman(6), Kasey Kahne(6), David Reutimann(8), Brian Vickers(8)

Ryan Newman continues his top 5 streak with a 2nd place finish.  He had a great car and was running with the leaders until a pit miscue dropped him down in the field.  He was working himself back through the field, and chose to stay out on the final caution which turned out to be a great move.  Kasey Kahne spent most of the race towards the front, and had the race gone the distance, he very likely would have been better than his 7th place finish.  I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do with the new Dodge engine in the coming weeks.  We’ve already covered Reutimann and his victory.  Vickers, like Kahne was in the mix all day, and ended up with a very positive result at 5th.  Solid picks all around in this group.

Group 3 – Bobby Labonte(7), Reed Sorenson(9)

I was really wanting to start Sorenson here to save Labonte in case I waste away my lead later in the season, but I just couldn’t do it.  I’m definitely glad I went with my gut on this one as Labonte had an solid 12th place finish, and Sorenson managed a 35th, one lap down of the winner.

Recap

• Points for this race: 313 (Martin, Newman, Kahne, Labonte)
• Most Possible Points: 412 (Busch (Gordon qual), Reutimann, Newman, Gordon)
• Season Points : 3489
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 318
• Overall Percentile : 99th (1335 overall) 

Photo Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Tuesday, May 26th, 2009
No Comments

Since about the 5th race of the season, the Hendrick and Stewart Haas teams have been the class of the field.  I’d suspect much of the same this weekend.  I’m sure most teams will tab one of the 3 Hendrick cars in the top group, and at least one of Newman, Stewart, Junior in the second group to carry the torch for this race.  Picking the right combination will be the key.

 **The numbers beside the drivers names are how many races I have them available for (9 starts per driver)

Group 1 – Mark Martin(9) & Greg Biffle(9)

Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson will be on a pile of rosters this weekend, but I’ve used them for 6 of 11 races already.  The next best option is Mark Martin, who excels at putting in laps, staying out of trouble, and being there when it matters.  In a 600 mile race, that strategy could pay big dividends, and if/when it does, I’ll gladly reap the benefits over those that took the top 2 dogs in the Hendrick shop.  Greg Biffle has been quietly putting together a solid stretch of good finishes, and is second only to Tony Stewart in average finish over the last 5 races.  He, like Johnson, excels at the cookie cutter tracks, and could very well put in a top 5 or 10.

Group 2 - Ryan Newman(7), Kasey Kahne(7), David Reutimann(8), Brian Vickers(8)

Newman has been one of the best performers of late, behind only Stewart and Biffle.  He should do well this weekend (and he starts on the pole…yeah, I didn’t realize quals were Thurs this week so I’m a little late getting this off), and I’d expect a solid top 10 run out of the #39.  Normally I’d go with Stewart as well, but I think I’m going to try and balance out my Hendrick Lite starts, and push Tony a little more when he traditionally does well and goes on a tear, in late June and July.  Kahne won the event last year and although I don’t think he’ll challenge for the win, I think he’ll lay down a solid performance in possibly his last race with the old Dodge engine (assuming RPM gives their top dog the new engine at Dover as is suspected).  Reutimann and Vickers were put on the roster, in hopes that Toyota power would earn some qual points…unfortunately neither could make the top 4, although Vickers laid down a run good enough for 8th.  I’m debating using him ahead of Kahne, figuring Kasey’s performance will pick up with the new motor, just like Kurt Busch’s did.

Group 3 – Bobby Labonte(8), Reed Sorenson(9)

I’ve used alot of Allmendinger and Ambrose already, and figured this week is as good as any to start spreading around some starts and prepping for the second half of the season.  Having close to a one race cushion on second place at this point in the season makes life alot easier, since I basically have a full mulligan.  Sorenson hasn’t qualifed well at all lately, but is improving his position an average of 17 spots each race, so I may just give him his first run of the year, despite his 42nd starting position.

Good luck with your picks and to all my American friends…have a great long weekend!

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Friday, May 22nd, 2009
No Comments

I still have no idea what happened in this race beyond about 10 laps.  Another busy weekend for me between working and playing ball, so I just happened to sleep through most of the race, and was travelling for the last 60 or so laps. 

Mark Martin wins Southern 500 and poses with the trophy that is bigger than he is.

I think after 11 races in the season I’m ready to declare that one of 5 Hendrick (I include Stewart-Haas in this number) cars will be the champ.  This weekend 6 of 7 Hendrick cars finished 7th or better.  I don’t think that 7th car can stay with the status quo any longer…something needs to change.  I’d start with the crew chief. 

It was nice to see Keselowski follow up his ‘Dega win with a top 10.  Should be interesting to see what happens with him between now and the end of the season.  Will he hang around Henrick long enough to get a Cup ride, or will Jr move his Nationwide team up to the big show for him?

In my league, I won the spring segment, which doesn’t mean squat, but apparently I have a pretty little picture of a trophy now.  More importantly I gained another point on second place…working on giving myself a full race cushion in points.

Group 1 – Jeff Gordon(4) & Mark Martin(9)

I picked the winner in this group again this week, unfortunately I left him on the bench.  Another victory for Martin, who looks like he could give Jimmie and Jeff a run for their money in the Chase.  It’s hard to be too upset with leaving the winner on the bench when your other driver still drops a top 5.  Hendrick Motorsports is absolutely ridiculous this year.  I’ll keep burning Gordon starts early as long as he keeps ripping off top 5′s…that back issue could eventually be a problem.

Group 2 – Kurt Busch(5), Ryan Newman(7), Denny Hamlin(6), Brian Vickers(8)

Ryan Newman has really come on after that slow start, and is actually 3rd in points over the past 5 races.  He’s droppin top 5′s like they’re hot.  Kurt Busch had an OK finish, crossing the line in 16th position.  Was expecting a top 10, but this will do.  Hamlin finished 3 spots ahead of Busch, and Vickers was in an accident and finished several laps down in 31st.  I can’t say he was a serious consideration for the start…was pretty much just on the roster in hopes of a good qualifying effort.

Group 3 – Marcos Ambrose (5), Bobby Labonte(8)

This pick prevented me from being happy with my score this week.  Ambrose finished 33rd and Labonte 18th.  I’m still kicking myself for not starting Labonte, since Darlington is a track that tends to favour the experienced driver (then again Keselowski and Logano both had top 10s).  Ah well, I’m sure there will be several more brain-cramps as the season rolls on.

Recap

• Points for this race: 280 (Gordon, Ku. Busch, Newman, Ambrose)
• Most Possible Points: 382 (Martin (Kenseth qual), Stewart, Newman, Keselowski (Hornish qual))
• Season Points : 3176
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 260
• Overall Percentile : 99th (1342 overall) 

Photo Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, May 11th, 2009
No Comments

Gordon wins at Texas for the first time in 17 attempts

First off I just want to apologize to those that look forward to seeing the Pit Picks every week prior to the race.  I surprisingly received several emails wondering where they this week.  Unfortunately life outside of my little interweb hobby got in the way.  I’m taking classes here and there on top of work, and had my major assignment and 2 tests to do this past week, then went to visit my folks for the weekend as they just got back from Cuba (yes, I’m jealous…I need a tan), so I didn’t get a chance to post my picks on here.

The story of the week has to be Jeff Gordon ending winless streaks both overall (48 races) and at Texas (17 races).  Gordon has now won in the Cup series at every active track except Homestead-Miami.  Carl Edwards was in position to win his third straight Texas race in the late stages, but his team faultered on a pit stop, and gave the lead to Gordon who held off teammate Jimmie Johnson for the victory.

Another week off is on tap for the Easter holiday.  I just want to wish everyone a Happy Easter, especially to those for which it means something more than chocolate eggs and bunnies.

Group 1 – Jeff Gordon(6) & Kyle Busch(8)

In the early going of this season, no one can touch Gordon’s consistency.  I used him again this week after he nailed down the outside front row starting position, since eventual Texas winners tend to qualify in the top 10.  He finally ended his winless streak and was top point getter on the week.  Busch apparently caused his own demise (I didn’t see the race…had batting practice in the afternoon) by bumping another car and managing to cut down his own tire. 

Group 2 – David Reutimann(8), Ryan Newman(8), Denny Hamlin(7), Kurt Busch(7)

I used Reutimann for the first time as a group 2 driver this week, since he was starting on the pole and almost assured to lead a lap and basically get a 5 position bonus.  He managed a solid 11th place finish and still sits inside the top 12, despite a pit penalty which possibly prevented him from a shot at a win.  I also used my first Newman start after back to back top 10s on the short tracks.  It looks like Newman’s bad luck is over and he should be able to work his way up the standings.  A 15th place finish this week is definitely acceptable, after a run of terrible performances to start the year.  Hamlin and Busch finished 12th and 8th respectively, but I have other tracks I want to run them at, so they were left on the bench this week.

Group 3 – Bobby Labonte(8), AJ Allmendinger(5)

Neither driver managed to do much in this race, with AJ finishing 34th, several laps down and Labonte 40th, off the track at the finish.  Thankfully the other group 3 ‘favourite’, Ambrose, also had a miserable day, so I didn’t lose much ground to anyone that went with the popular choices here.   Allmendinger’s schedule is close to being extended yet again, as it’s hard to park a car that’s 15th in points.  Other teams have already expressed an interest in him, including one of the Big 4.  I may just have to be a little more selective from here on out with those 5 starts.

Recap

• Points for this race: 279 (Gordon, Reutimann, Newman, Labonte)
• Most Possible Points: 367 (Gordon (Kenseth qual), Stewart, Ku. Busch (Reutimann, Ragan qual), Hornish Jr.)
• Season Points : 2063
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 176
• Overall Percentile : 99th (901 overall) 

Photo Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, April 6th, 2009
No Comments

 Well we’re four races in, and one thing is becoming quite clear.  The Blue Deuce is going to be a factor this season.  It looks like the new Dodge engine the Penske squad is running, is money on the intermediate speedways.  It didn’t matter who he was running down, or who was trying to run him down, Kurt had the answer every time.  If the package performs as well on the smaller tracks, the Miller Lite Dodge should have a spot in The Chase after a one year absense.

A caution in the middle of a green flag pit cycle threw a big wrench (not the one Kurt is holding in the picture) into the chances of most of the field.  Thanks to an absent minded crewman from the #47 team chasing a tire across the infield, several cars were trapped laps down, and struggled all day to get them back.  The incident occured with only 6 cars on the lead lap.  By the end of the race, only 12 cars had completed all 330 laps.

Group 1 – Jimmie Johnson(8) & Kyle Busch(8)

I went with Jimmie over Kyle in this one, and was rewarded with a 9th place finish and a 10 point bonus for leading a lap.  He tied for third overall for the group (with Kevin Harvick) after Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards.  Kyle finished mid-pack in 18th, thanks mostly to some untimely cautions, which pinned him laps down in traffic and he was never really a factor.

Group 2 – Kurt Busch(7), Tony Stewart(7), David Reutimann(9), Brian Vickers(9)

Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart got the nod this week.  Kurt thanks to his qualifying effort (outside front row, which almost assured him of leading a lap with Martin on the inside).  I definitely wasn’t disappointed, thanks to a domininant performance by the #2 car.  Busch won the race, and led the most laps, plus qualified second to score just 5 points under the max of 120.  Stewart didn’t look good in practice, but he ran well and finished 8th for a decent points day.  Vickers knocked down another top 5 and was second only to Busch in this group.  Reutimann had a performance I’m sure he’d like to forget, and finished 32nd.

Group 3 – AJ Allmendinger(5), Bobby Labonte(9)

AJ Allmendinger got his 4th straight start for my squad, and had a respectible 17th place finish, the last car 2 laps down.  The finish was, however, tops for the third group.  Several teams took Bobby Labonte for the race after last week’s top 5, and were dinged big time for it, with a 40th place finish after engine problems forced them out.  Prior to that, he was all over the track and could never get a handle on the car.

Recap

• Points for this race: 333 (Johnson, Ku. Busch, Stewart, Allmendinger)
• Most Possible Points: 367 (J. Gordon (Martin qual), Ku. Busch, Vickers (McMurray, Montoya qual), Allmendinger)
• Season Points : 1164
• Current Place : 1st
• Lead over 2nd : 85
• Overall Percentile : 99th (2726 overall) 

Photo Credit: Geoff Burke/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Intermediates, Pit Picks by Site Admin - Monday, March 9th, 2009
No Comments