Is The Grass Greener?
The first race of the 2014 season is only a week away, and I’m starting to put some serious thought into my selections for my own pools for this year. Instead of just going by my gut feeling in each box I’ve decided to do a little bit of research this season, and see if that can’t bump me up the standings. It’s been a few seasons since I’ve been in serious contention in my main pool, and I’d like to get back up to the top, and enjoy the prize money that comes along with that success.
One thing I took a look at was drivers changing teams in the off-season, and how that effects their performance. I went back as far as the 2008 into 2009 off-season, and looked at a number of drivers that either left or were forced out of their current ride. I didn’t look at every change though, instead focusing mainly on drivers that drove the full season, before moving on, with 2 exceptions (Martin in 08 and Keselowski in 09). Each change involved what I considered one of the upper tier teams, or a driver that had previously won a Championship, in order to include Kurt Busch and Bobby Labonte moving between lower tier teams.
Once I got the totals for the selected drivers, I separated them into groups according to what I considered the type of team they were going to and from. The Lateral groups involve a driver making what I considered a lateral move to either another top tier team or a another lower tier team. In some cases the driver making the switch went from 3rd or 4th in the pecking order to closer to the top with their new team, which would partially explain the increased performance. The drivers in the step up group made a significant jump from a lower tier team (where competing for a Championship is pretty unrealistic) to one of the teams that are usually in the mix. The drivers in the step down group were usually ousted for better drivers and picked up rides lower down the food chain.
| Group | Avg. Finish | Points Position | Poles | Wins | Races Led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lateral – Top Tier | 3.22 | 5.00 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 4.17 |
| Lateral – Lower Tier | 4.03 | 4.50 | -0.50 | 0.25 | 3.75 |
| Step Up ** | 1.73 | 8.50 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 4.33 |
| Step Down | -5.40 | -7.00 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -1.00 |
| All | 1.21 | 3.55 | 0.40 | 0.75 | 3.10 |
** Note the Step Up group includes Keselowski and Martin only running partial seasons prior to the switch so the Points Position numbers are skewed a bit there.
As you can see, for the most part, the switch to a new team tends to mean an increase in performance with the exception of being dropped from one of the top teams.
So what does this mean for the 2014 season?
Kevin Harvick (Lateral) – It will be tough to improve on his 2013 numbers, where he finished 2nd in total points (for 99% of pools, you can ignore where a driver finishes the Chase). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small drop off in Harvick’s performance, and the fact that he’s likely in your top group, makes him a tough selection.
Ryan Newman (Lateral) – I expect a slight uptick in Newman’s stats after heading to Childress in 2014, but probably nothing major. He usually ends up in the 10-15 range year in and year out.
Kurt Busch (Step Up) – Look for Busch to be back in contention this year at Stewart-Haas. He’s probably the 3rd best driver on the team, but all 3 should be top 10 at season’s end. I don’t think we’ll see another winless season for Kurt. He’s probably a good selection in 2014.
Martin Truex (Step Down) – While Busch had a decent season for Furniture Row, I don’t expect Truex to repeat that. I think we’ll see a moderate drop off, and I’ll be avoiding him in all of my season long pools.